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Statewide opinion polling for the United States presidential election, 2008

 

Statewide opinion polling for the United States presidential election, 2008

This article provides a collection of state-wide public opinion polls that were conducted relating to the United States presidential election, 2008.

Contents

  • Opinion polling 1
    • Alabama 1.1
    • Alaska 1.2
    • Arizona 1.3
    • Arkansas 1.4
    • California 1.5
    • Colorado 1.6
    • Connecticut 1.7
    • Delaware 1.8
    • District of Columbia 1.9
    • Florida 1.10
    • Georgia 1.11
    • Hawaii 1.12
    • Idaho 1.13
    • Illinois 1.14
    • Indiana 1.15
    • Iowa 1.16
    • Kansas 1.17
    • Kentucky 1.18
    • Louisiana 1.19
    • Maine 1.20
    • Maryland 1.21
    • Massachusetts 1.22
    • Michigan 1.23
    • Minnesota 1.24
    • Mississippi 1.25
    • Missouri 1.26
    • Montana 1.27
    • Nebraska 1.28
    • Nevada 1.29
    • New Hampshire 1.30
    • New Jersey 1.31
    • New Mexico 1.32
    • New York 1.33
    • North Carolina 1.34
    • North Dakota 1.35
    • Ohio 1.36
    • Oklahoma 1.37
    • Oregon 1.38
    • Pennsylvania 1.39
    • Rhode Island 1.40
    • South Carolina 1.41
    • South Dakota 1.42
    • Tennessee 1.43
    • Texas 1.44
    • Utah 1.45
    • Vermont 1.46
    • Virginia 1.47
    • Washington 1.48
    • West Virginia 1.49
    • Wisconsin 1.50
    • Wyoming 1.51
  • See also 2
  • Notes 3
  • Latest results (using latest polling when available) 4
  • Maps of recent polling data 5
  • Election Day projection 6
  • References 7
  • External links 8

Opinion polling

Alabama

9 electoral votes
(Republican in 2000 & 2004)

Alaska

3 electoral votes
(Republican in 2000 & 2004)

Arizona

10 electoral votes
(Republican in 2000 & 2004)

Arkansas

6 electoral votes
(Republican in 2000 & 2004)

California

55 electoral votes
(Democrat in 2000 & 2004)

Colorado

9 electoral votes
(Republican in 2000 & 2004)

Connecticut

7 electoral votes
(Democrat in 2000 & 2004)

Delaware

3 electoral votes
(Democrat in 2000 & 2004)

District of Columbia

3 electoral votes
(Democrat in 2000 & 2004)

Florida

27 electoral votes
(Republican in 2000 & 2004)

Georgia

15 electoral votes
(Republican in 2000 & 2004)

Hawaii

4 electoral votes
(Democrat in 2000 & 2004)

Idaho

4 electoral votes
(Republican in 2000 & 2004)

Illinois

21 electoral votes
(Democrat in 2000 & 2004)

Indiana

11 electoral votes
(Republican in 2000 & 2004)

Iowa

7 electoral votes
(Democrat in 2000)
(Republican in 2004)

Kansas

6 electoral votes
(Republican in 2000 & 2004)

Kentucky

8 electoral votes
(Republican in 2000 & 2004)

Louisiana

9 electoral votes
(Republican in 2000 & 2004)

Maine

4 electoral votes
(Democrat in 2000 & 2004)

Maryland

10 electoral votes
(Democrat in 2000 & 2004)

Massachusetts

12 electoral votes
(Democrat in 2000 & 2004)

Michigan

17 electoral votes
(Democrat in 2000 & 2004)

Minnesota

10 electoral votes
(Democrat in 2000 & 2004)

Mississippi

6 electoral votes
(Republican in 2000 & 2004)

Missouri

for earlier results

11 electoral votes
(Republican in 2000 & 2004)

Montana

3 electoral votes
(Republican in 2000 & 2004)

‡ Ron Paul replaced Chuck Baldwin on the ballot in Montana.

Nebraska

5 electoral votes
(Republican in 2000 & 2004)

Nevada

5 electoral votes
(Republican in 2000 & 2004)

New Hampshire

4 electoral votes
(Republican in 2000)
(Democrat in 2004)

New Jersey

15 electoral votes
(Democrat in 2000 & 2004)

New Mexico

5 electoral votes
(Democrat in 2000)
(Republican in 2004)

New York

31 electoral votes
(Democrat in 2000 & 2004)

North Carolina

15 electoral votes
(Republican in 2000 & 2004)

North Dakota

3 electoral votes
(Republican in 2000 & 2004)

Ohio

20 electoral votes
(Republican in 2000 & 2004)

Oklahoma

7 electoral votes
(Republican in 2000 & 2004)

Oregon

7 electoral votes
(Democrat in 2000 & 2004)

Pennsylvania

21 electoral votes
(Democrat in 2000 & 2004)

Rhode Island

4 electoral votes
(Democrat in 2000 & 2004)

South Carolina

8 electoral votes
(Republican in 2000 & 2004)

South Dakota

3 electoral votes
(Republican in 2000 & 2004)

Tennessee

11 electoral votes
(Republican in 2000 & 2004)

Texas

34 electoral votes
(Republican in 2000 & 2004)

Utah

5 electoral votes
(Republican in 2000 & 2004)

Vermont

Winner: Barack Obama
3 electoral votes
(Democrat in 2000 & 2004)

Virginia

13 electoral votes
(Republican in 2000 & 2004)

Washington

11 electoral votes
(Democrat in 2000 & 2004)

West Virginia

5 electoral votes
(Republican in 2000 & 2004)

Wisconsin

10 electoral votes
(Democrat in 2000 & 2004)

Wyoming

3 electoral votes
(Republican in 2000 & 2004)

See also

Notes

  • * a scientific poll conducted via the Internet (not used in calculating results below).
  • ** a poll commissioned by an organization affiliated with a specific candidate (not used in calculating results below).

Latest results (using latest polling when available)

This results section uses only the latest polls for each state. It is for indicative purposes only, and is highly susceptible to polling errors. The numbers in parentheses indicate the number of electoral votes awarded to each state. A total of 538 electoral votes are distributed among the states and DC. Margins of 10% or more are considered "safe"; margins of 5% to 9.9% are considered "likely" and margins of 0.1% to 4.9% are considered "leaning". Margins of multiple polls concluded the same day are averaged out. Because the list is revised after newer polls are released, it is highly volatile and should only be taken as examples.

Maps of recent polling data

Map and totals updated at 11-3-08 11:10AM EST. Maps are based on a weighted average for the previous 10 polling results, and as such may be slow to show changes in countrywide opinion – click on the image to view its history. The second map is altered to convey the proportional amount of electoral votes of each state. The number of electoral votes of a given state is based on its population. Candidates must win at least 270 electoral votes to win the election, and the House of Representatives votes in the event no one qualifies.

Safe Obama – over 10% (243) Likely Obama – over 5% (291) (48) Leans Obama – over 1% (338) (47) Tossup – within 1% (29) Leans McCain – over 1% (171) (39) Likely McCain – over 5% (132) (14) Safe McCain – over 10% (118)
District of Columbia (3) – 69.0%

Hawaii (4) – 38.3%
New York (31) – 29.0%
Vermont (3) – 27.4%
Delaware (3) – 23.8%
Illinois (21) – 22.8%
California (55) – 22.7%
Massachusetts (12) – 20.3%
Connecticut (7) – 20.1%
Maryland (10) – 18.2%
Rhode Island (4) – 17.0%
New Jersey (15) – 16.5%
Oregon (7) – 15.4%
Washington (11) – 14.6%
Maine (4) – 14.0%
Michigan (17) – 13.8%
Iowa (7) – 13.0%
New Hampshire (4) – 12.9%
Minnesota (10) – 11.9%
Wisconsin (10) – 11.3%
New Mexico (5) – 10.1%

Pennsylvania (21) – 7.4%

Colorado (9) – 7.2%
Nevada (5) – 6.1%
Virginia (13) – 5.6%

Ohio (20) – 4.6%

Florida (27) – 3.1%

North Carolina (15) – 0.9% Obama

Missouri (11) – 0.1% McCain
North Dakota (3) – 0.5% McCain

Arizona (10) – 4.7%

Georgia (15) – 4.1%
Montana (3) – 2.5%
Indiana (11) – 1.3%

Arkansas (6) – 9.7%

South Dakota (3) – 9.0%
West Virginia (5) – 7.9%

Oklahoma (7) – 29.3%

Utah (5) – 26.2%
Idaho (4) – 25.2%
Wyoming (3) – 23.6%
Alabama (9) – 23.4%
Nebraska (5) – 20.7%
Kansas (6) – 16.8%
Alaska (3) – 16.7%
Tennessee (11) – 15.2%
Kentucky (8) – 13.7%
Texas (34) – 11.9%
South Carolina (8) – 11.5%
Mississippi (6) – 11.0%
Louisiana (9)- 10.2%

Totals

  • Obama leads: 338 electoral votes
  • McCain leads: 171 electoral votes

Election Day projection

FINAL UPDATE: 22:32, 4 November 2008 (UTC)

  • Data derived from Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight.com weighted averages and statistical polling analysis, which determines what the best guess as to what will happen on Election Day is rather than what would happen if the election were held today. (Methodology)
  • Each state is colored according to which candidate is currently projected to win, and both the state's total electoral votes and the winning candidate's projected margin of victory are listed.

References

  1. ^

External links

  • FiveThirtyEight.com: Detailed analysis of state-by-state general election polling
  • Electoral-Vote.com
  • Pollster.com Graphic display of aggregated polls
  • Election-Projection.net 2008 state-by-state and Electoral College Vote Projections
  • Rasmussen Reports: Balance of Power Calculator
  • Real Clear Politics
  • Princeton Election Consortium
  • Survey USA
  • CNN's Electoral Map
  • American Research Group's Ballot Lead Calculator
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