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Arizona gubernatorial election, 2014

Arizona gubernatorial election, 2014

November 4, 2014

 
Nominee Doug Ducey Fred DuVal
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 805,062 626,921
Percentage 53.45% 41.62 %

County results

Governor before election

Jan Brewer
Republican

Elected Governor

Doug Ducey
Republican

The 2014 Arizona gubernatorial election was held on November 4, 2014, to elect the Governor of Arizona, concurrently with elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Incumbent Republican Governor Jan Brewer was term-limited and could not run for re-election to a second full term in office. After a bitter six-candidate primary, Republicans nominated Arizona State Treasurer Doug Ducey; Democrat Fred DuVal, the former Chairman of the Arizona Board of Regents, won his party's nomination unopposed. Ducey won the election with 53% of the vote.

Contents

  • Background 1
  • Republican primary 2
    • Candidates 2.1
      • Declared 2.1.1
      • Withdrew 2.1.2
      • Declined 2.1.3
    • Endorsements 2.2
    • Polling 2.3
    • Results 2.4
  • Democratic primary 3
    • Candidates 3.1
      • Declared 3.1.1
      • Withdrew 3.1.2
      • Declined 3.1.3
    • Endorsements 3.2
    • Polling 3.3
    • Results 3.4
  • Third parties 4
    • Candidates 4.1
      • Declared 4.1.1
    • Results 4.2
  • General election 5
    • Polling 5.1
      • Results 5.1.1
  • References 6
  • External links 7

Background

Candidates for Governor speaking at a forum hosted by the Arizona Chamber of Commerce and Industry. From left to right: Al Melvin, Scott Smith, Christine Jones, Fred DuVal, Frank Riggs, Doug Ducey and Ken Bennett.

Democratic Governor Janet Napolitano resigned on January 21, 2009, to be sworn-in as Secretary of the Department of Homeland Security. Since Arizona does not have a Lieutenant Governor, Secretary of State Jan Brewer was first in the state's gubernatorial line of succession and was sworn in as Governor on the same day. She was elected to a full term in 2010, defeating Democrat Terry Goddard, the Arizona Attorney General, by 54% to 42%.

Brewer was term-limited in 2014, despite only serving one full term. This is because Arizona state law limits office holders to two consecutive terms regardless of whether they serve full or partial terms. In November 2012, Brewer declared she was looking into what she called "ambiguity" in Arizona's term-limit law to seek a third term.[1] In February 2014, Brewer reiterated that she was considering running for re-election,[2] but on March 12, 2014, she announced that she would not attempt to seek another term in office, which would have required what The Arizona Republic called a "long-shot court challenge".[3]

Republican primary

The Republican primary campaign was widely characterised as being a "bitter" and "nasty"[4][5][6][7] and the $16.2 million spent by the six Republican candidates means that the 2014 election has already broken the record for most expensive gubernatorial race in state history, exceeding the 2002 election in which $9.2 million was spent during the primary and general election campaigns combined.[8]

Candidates

Declared

Withdrew

Declined

Endorsements

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Ken
Bennett
Doug
Ducey
Christine
Jones
Al
Melvin
John
Molina
Frank
Riggs
Scott
Smith
Andrew
Thomas
Undecided
Magellan Strategies August 17–21, 2014 1,281 ± 2.74% 12% 32% 18% 2% 21% 8% 7%
Harper Polling August 19–20, 2014 812 ± 3.44% 14% 32% 16% 2% 19% 7% 10%
Remington August 17–19, 2014 502 ± 4.37% 10% 33% 18% 1% 22% 11% 5%
Magellan Strategies August 15–18, 2014 1,322 ± ? 12% 31% 17% 3% 22% 8% 7%
Magellan Strategies August 12–15, 2014 1,300 ± ? 10% 31% 16% 3% 23% 7% 10%
Magellan Strategies August 5–7, 2014 1,289 ± 2.73% 11% 29% 13% 4% 22% 9% 12%
Magellan Strategies July 28–31, 2014 1,644 ± ? 12% 23% 13% 5% 21% 10% 16%
Undisclosed Late July 2014 ? ± ? 10% 23% 20% 2% 15% 9% 21%
Harper Polling July 16–17, 2014 885 ± 3.29% 12% 23% 21% 1% 13% 7% 22%
Behavior Research Center July 10–17, 2014 459 ± 4.7% 10% 13% 17% 2% 8% 0% 50%
Gravis Marketing July 14, 2014 691 ± 4% 7% 28% 19% 1% 14% 8% 24%
Highground July 10–12, 2014 400 ± 4.9% 3.5% 17.3% 15.3% 1.5% 9.8% 3% 49.8%
Magellan Strategies July 9–10, 2014 593 ± 4.02% 11% 26% 22% 2% 14% 6% 19%
Harper Polling June 25–26, 2014 791 ± 3.48% 12% 33% 15% 2% 14% 3% 22%
McLaughlin & Associates June 10, 2014 400 ± 3.48% 8% 22.8% 6.2% 6.5% 56.5%
Magellan Strategies June 3–4, 2014 630 ± 3.9% 12% 28% 12% 2% 2% 16% 5% 23%
Magellan Strategies May 13–14, 2014 760 ± 3.6% 12.7% 27.3% 11.9% 1.3% 0.2% 0.7% 11.5% 5.6% 28.8%
Undisclosed April 29, 2014 1,367 ± 3.5% 7% 4% 10% 9% 5% 65%
Magellan Strategies April 8–9, 2014 ? ± ? 15% 9% 14% 1% 6% 6% 45%
Public Policy Polling Feb. 28–Mar. 2, 2014 403 ± 4.9% 20% 6% 16% 1% 1% 1% 12% 9% 34%
Behavior Research Center January 16–26, 2014 701 ± 3.8% 6% 2% 8% 1% 7% 7% 69%
Susquehanna Nov. 27–Dec. 4 2013 245 ± ? 20% 8% 4% 2% 6% 4% 56%

Results

Republican primary results[45]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Doug Ducey 200,607 37.05%
Republican Scott Smith 119,107 22.00%
Republican Christine Jones 89,922 16.61%
Republican Ken Bennett 62,010 11.45%
Republican Andrew Thomas 43,822 8.09%
Republican Frank Riggs 24,168 4.45%
Republican Write-in 1,804 0.33%
Totals 541,440 100%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Withdrew

  • Ronald Cavanaugh, Libertarian candidate for Governor in 2010[47][20]

Declined

Endorsements

Polling

Results

Democratic primary results[45]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Fred Duval 271,276 96.93%
Democratic Write-in 8,578 3.07%
Totals 279,854 100%

Third parties

Candidates

Declared

  • Alice Novoa (Republican write-in candidate)[65][66]
  • Brian Bailey (Independent write-in candidate), Arizona Army National Guardsman[65][66]
  • Cary Dolego (Independent), write-in candidate for Governor in 2010[65][66]
  • Barry Hess (Libertarian Party), perennial candidate[20]
  • Joseph James "J." Johnson (Unaffiliated write-in candidate), food account manager and brother of Eddie Johnson[65][66]
  • John Lewis Mealer (Americans Elect), candidate for the Americans Elect nomination for President in 2012[20]
  • Diana-Elizabeth Ramseys Rasmussen Kennedy (Independent write-in candidate)[65][66]
  • Curtis Woolsey (Unaffiliated write-in candidate)[65][66]

Results

Libertarian primary results[45]
Party Candidate Votes %
Libertarian Barry Hess 3,979 74.74%
Libertarian Write-in 1,345 25.26%
Totals 5,324 100%
Americans Elect primary results[45]
Party Candidate Votes %
Americans Elect John Lewis Mealer 722 95%
Americans Elect Write-in 38 5%
Totals 960 100%
[67]

General election

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Doug
Ducey (R)
Fred
DuVal (D)
Other Undecided
CBS News/NYT/YouGov October 16–23, 2014 2,621 ± 4% 50% 40% 1% 9%
The Polling Company October 20–22, 2014 601 ± 4% 42% 35% 7%[68] 15%
Rasmussen Reports October 14–16, 2014 1,056 ± 3% 47% 42% 3% 7%
Tarrance Group October 13–16, 2014 500 ± 4.5% 43% 36% 5%[68] 16%
McLaughlin & Associates October 12–14, 2014 500 ± 4.5% 37% 35.8% 5.4%[69] 21.8%
Adrian Gray Consulting October 8–9, 2014 600 ± 4% 43% 35% 8%[70] 14%
Moore Information October 7–8, 2014 400 ± ~4.9% 36% 39% 4%[71] 21%
The Polling Company October 6–8, 2014 600 ± 4% 46% 37% 5%[68] 11%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov September 20–October 1, 2014 2,808 ± 3% 50% 39% 2% 9%
Keating Research September 17–19, 2014 600 ± 4% 41% 39% 7%[72] 13%
Tarrance Group September 15–17, 2014 505 ± 4.5% 44% 38% 7%[73] 11%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov August 18–September 2, 2014 3,289 ± 3% 39% 38% 15% 9%
Rasmussen Reports August 27–28, 2014 850 ± 3% 40% 40% 20%
Public Policy Polling August 24–25, 2014 588 ± 4% 35% 35% 12%[68] 18%
Public Policy Polling February 28–March 2, 2014 870 ± 3.3% 35% 36% 29%
Undisclosed February 2014 500 ± ? 32% 32% 6%[68] 30%
Behavior Research Center January 16–26, 2014 701 ± 3.8% 21% 23% 56%
Susquehanna November 27–December 4, 2013 600 ± 4% 36% 33% 31%

Results

General election results[74]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Doug Ducey 805,062 53.45%
Democratic Fred DuVal 626,921 41.62%
Libertarian Barry Hess 57,337 3.81%
Americans Elect Party John Lewis Mealer 15,432 1.02%
Write-ins Other 1,574 0.1%
Totals 1,506,326 100%

References

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  67. ^ http://azsos.gov/election/2014/primary/Canvass.pdf
  68. ^ a b c d e Barry Hess (L)
  69. ^ Barry Hess (L) 2.8%, John Lewis Mealer (AE) 2.6%
  70. ^ Barry Hess (L) 5%, John Lewis Mealer (AE) 3%
  71. ^ Barry Hess (L) 3%, John Lewis Mealer (AE) 1%
  72. ^ Barry Hess (L)
  73. ^ Barry Hess (L) 6%, John Lewis Mealer (AE) 1%
  74. ^ "Unofficial Results General Election". Arizona Secretary of State. Retrieved November 9, 2014. 

External links

  • Arizona gubernatorial election, 2014 at Ballotpedia
  • Campaign contributions at FollowTheMoney.org
Official campaign websites
  • Doug Ducey for Governor
  • Fred DuVal for Governor
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