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Minnesota gubernatorial election, 2014

 

Minnesota gubernatorial election, 2014

Minnesota gubernatorial election, 2014

November 4, 2014

 
Nominee Mark Dayton Jeff Johnson
Party DFL Republican
Running mate Tina Smith Bill Kuisle
Popular vote 988,713 878,937
Percentage 50.1% 44.5%

County results

Governor before election

Mark Dayton
DFL

Elected Governor

Mark Dayton
DFL

The 2014 Minnesota gubernatorial election took place on November 4, 2014, concurrently with the election to Minnesota's Class II U.S. Senate seat, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Incumbent Democratic–Farmer–Labor Governor Mark Dayton won re-election to a second term in office.[1] Dayton’s victory broke his own record, set in 2010, as the oldest Minnesota gubernatorial candidate to win an election; he was 67.[2]

Incumbent Democratic Lieutenant Governor Yvonne Prettner Solon retired and Tina Smith was elected as Dayton's running mate.[3] Primary elections were held on August 12, 2014. Dayton and Smith won the Democratic primary and defeated Republican nominee Jeff Johnson and his running mate Bill Kuisle and Independence Party nominee Hannah Nicollet and her running mate Tim Gieseke.

Background

Incumbent Republican Governor Tim Pawlenty declined to run for a third term in 2010, instead running for the Republican presidential nomination in the 2012 election. State Representative Tom Emmer easily won the Republican nomination and former U.S. Senator Mark Dayton won the DFL nomination with a plurality over State House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher. After a very close race, Dayton defeated Emmer by just 8,770 votes, 0.42% of all votes cast.

Dayton's victory was one of just four that Minnesota Democrats have achieved out of 28 gubernatorial elections during a Democratic presidency.[4] Despite this, and despite his narrow margin of victory in 2010, Dayton is not seen as a top Republican target. The Cook Political Report[5] and The Rothenberg Political Report[6] both rate the race as "safe Democratic" and Daily Kos Elections,[7] Governing[8] and Sabato's Crystal Ball[9] all rate the race as "likely Democratic".

Democratic–Farmer–Labor primary

Candidates

Declared

  • Bill Dahn
    • Running mate: James Vigliotti
  • Leslie Davis, activist[10]
    • Running mate: Gregor Soderberg[11]
  • Mark Dayton, incumbent Governor[1]
    • Running mate: Tina Smith, Dayton's former chief of staff[12]

Results

Democratic primary election results[13]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Mark Dayton/Tina Smith 177,849 92.99%
Democratic Leslie Davis/Gregor Soderberg 8,530 4.46%
Democratic Bill Dahn/James Vigliotti 4,880 2.55%
Totals 191,259 100%

Republican primary

Until 2014, Minnesota Republicans had not had a competitive gubernatorial primary since 1924, when Theodore Christianson beat Ole Jacobson by 2.8%, taking 22.8% of the vote in a six-candidate race that saw five candidates finish in double digits. In every election since then, the nominee had won the primary by at least 17.8% and on average by 62.2%.[14]

At the Republican State Convention on May 30–31, 2014, Jeff Johnson received the party's endorsement. Dave A. Thompson withdrew from the race and endorsed Johnson. Scott Honour, Marty Seifert and Kurt Zellers all ran in the August primary, but Johnson prevailed with 30% of the vote.[15][16]

Candidates

Declared

Withdrawn

Declined

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Rob
Farnsworth
Scott
Honour
Jeff
Johnson
Julie
Rosen
Ole
Savior
Marty
Seifert
Dave A.
Thompson
Kurt
Zellers
Other/
Undecided
SurveyUSA June 5–9, 2014 404 ± 5% 9% 23% 14% 23% 33%[48]
Suffolk April 24–28, 2014 73 ± ? 0.51% 1.52% 6.57% 1.01% 9.60% 4.55% 8.08% 68.19%
Public Policy Polling October 27–29, 2013 305 ± 5.7% 6% 8% 10% 9% 11% 12% 44%

Results

Republican primary election results[13]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Jeff Johnson/Bill Kuisle 55,836 30.33%
Republican Kurt Zellers/Dean Simpson 44,046 23.92%
Republican Marty Seifert/Pam Myhra 38,851 21.1%
Republican Scott Honour/Karin Housley 38,377 20.84%
Republican Merrill Anderson/Mark D. Anderson 7,000 3.8%
Totals 184,110 100%

Independence primary

The Independence Party of Minnesota state convention was held on May 17, 2014, at Minnesota State University, Mankato.[49]

Candidates

Nominee

  • Hannah Nicollet, software developer[50]
    • Running mate: Tim Gieseke, businessman and candidate for the State House in 2013[51]

Declined

Results

Independence primary election results[13]
Party Candidate Votes %
Independence Hannah Nicollet/Tim Gieseke 5,822 100%
Totals 5,822 100%

Libertarian Party

The Libertarian Party of Minnesota state convention was held on April 26, 2014, in Maple Grove.[54]

Candidates

Nominee

  • Chris Holbrook[55]
    • Running mate: Chris Dock[56]

Grassroots — Legalize Cannabis Party

Candidates

Declared

  • Chris Wright, computer repair shop owner and nominee for governor in 1998 and 2010[57]
    • Running mate: David Daniels, playwright and performance artist

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking
The Cook Political Report[5] Safe Democratic
The Rothenberg Political Report[6] Safe Democratic
Daily Kos Elections[7] Likely Democratic
Governing[8] Lean Democratic
Sabato's Crystal Ball[9] Likely Democratic

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Mark
Dayton (DFL)
Jeff
Johnson (R)
Hannah
Nicollet (IP)
Other Undecided
SurveyUSA/KSTP-TV October 27–30, 2014 596 ± 4.1% 47% 42% 2% 4%[58] 4%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov October 16–23, 2014 2,430 ± 3% 50% 41% 1% 9%
Mason-Dixon/Star Tribune October 20–22, 2014 800 ± 3.5% 45% 38% 5% 2% 10%
SurveyUSA/KSTP-TV October 14–16, 2014 597 ± 4.1% 50% 40% 3% 3%[59] 4%
SurveyUSA/KSTP-TV September 30 – October 2, 2014 577 ± 4.2% 51% 39% 4% 2%[60] 4%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov September 20 – October 1, 2014 2,562 ± 2% 49% 42% 0% 1% 8%
Rasmussen Reports September 29–30, 2014 750 ± 4% 50% 40% 10%
Mason-Dixon/Star Tribune September 8–10, 2014 800 ± 3.5% 45% 33% 1% 1% 20%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov August 18 – September 2, 2014 3,607 ± 2% 48% 41% 2% 10%
SurveyUSA/KSTP-TV August 19–21, 2014 600 ± 4.1% 49% 40% 3% 3% 5%
Rasmussen Reports August 13–14, 2014 750 ± 4% 49% 41% 10%
Public Policy Polling June 12–15, 2014 633 ± 3.9% 47% 36% 16%
SurveyUSA/KSTP-TV June 5–9, 2014 1,017 ± 3.1% 46% 40% 5% 2% 6%
Suffolk University April 24–28, 2014 800 ± ? 44% 29.63% 26.38%
SurveyUSA/KSTP-TV February 25–27, 2014 545 ± 4.3% 52% 34% 14%
Public Policy Polling October 27–29, 2013 895 ± 3.3% 48% 37% 15%
Public Policy Polling May 17–19, 2013 712 ± 3.7% 52% 34% 14%
Public Policy Polling January 18–20, 2013 1,065 ± 3% 53% 29% 18%

See also

References

  1. ^ a b "Gov. Dayton stops by KARE 11 Sunrise, says he'll run again in 2014".  
  2. ^ Ostermeier, Eric (November 13, 2014). "Minnesotans Elect Oldest Governor, US House Delegation in State History". Smart Politics. 
  3. ^ Brian Bakst (January 14, 2014). "Minn. Lt. Gov. Prettner Solon says no to 2nd term".  
  4. ^ Ostermeier, Eric (December 6, 2013). "Can Dayton Catch Lightning in a Bottle Twice?". Smart Politics. 
  5. ^ a b "2014 Governors Race Ratings for December 19, 2013".  
  6. ^ a b "Gubernatorial Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report. January 31, 2014. Retrieved February 5, 2014. 
  7. ^ a b Nir, David (November 15, 2013). "Daily Kos Elections gubernatorial race ratings (2013-14)". Daily Kos Elections. Retrieved February 5, 2014. 
  8. ^ a b "Handicapping the 2013-2014 Governors Races: The Democrats".  
  9. ^ a b "2014 Gubernatorial Races".  
  10. ^ Salisbury, Bill (January 22, 2014). "Frequent candidate Davis runs for governor, this time as a DFLer".  
  11. ^ Daily Herald Staff (June 7, 2014). "Austin resident promoting solar roads on campaign trail". Austin Daily Herald. Retrieved August 5, 2014. 
  12. ^ Helgeson, Baird (February 4, 2014). "Dayton picks chief of staff Tina Smith for running mate".  
  13. ^ a b c "Statewide Results for Governor & Lt Governor, Primary Election".  
  14. ^ Ostermeier, Eric (August 12, 2013). "100 Years of Minnesota Repufgoverblican Gubernatorial Primaries". Smart Politics. Retrieved August 22, 2013. 
  15. ^ a b c Don Davis (May 31, 2014). "Jeff Johnson wins governor endorsement from Minnesota GOP". Duluth News Tribune. Retrieved May 31, 2014. 
  16. ^ Bill Salisbury (May 31, 2014). "MN GOP: Johnson wins party endorsement for governor's race". St. Paul Pioneer Press. Retrieved May 31, 2014. 
  17. ^ "Meet 30 of the candidates for mayor of Minneapolis". Retrieved 16 November 2014. 
  18. ^ http://candidates.sos.state.mn.us/CandidateInformation.aspx?county=0&municipality=0&schooldistrict=0&hospitaldistrict=0&level=1&party=0&federal=True&judicial=True&executive=True&senate=True&representative=True&title=&office=0&candidateid=10810. 
  19. ^ Stassen-Berger, Rachel E. (April 24, 2013). "Republican businessman announces challenge to DFL Gov. Dayton".  
  20. ^ a b Bill Salisbury (May 31, 2014). "Scott Honour picks first-term lawmaker Karin Housley as running mate".  
  21. ^ "Jeff Johnson wins governor endorsement from Minnesota GOP". Duluth News Tribune. Retrieved 16 November 2014. 
  22. ^ Meersman, Tom (May 5, 2013). "Hennepin County Commissioner Jeff Johnson announces he will seek GOP nomination for governor".  
  23. ^ Brucato, Cyndy (November 12, 2013). "Marty Seifert will seek GOP endorsement for governor".  
  24. ^ Salisbury, Bill (February 27, 2014). "Governor hopeful Seifert chooses Rep. Pam Myhra as running mate".  
  25. ^ Condon, Patrick (June 23, 2013). "GOP's Zellers vows common touch in Minn. governor's race, but brings past political baggage".  
  26. ^ Tim Pugmire (May 22, 2014). "Zellers picks former Rep. Simpson as running mate". MPR. Retrieved May 31, 2014. 
  27. ^ Salisbury, Bill (August 21, 2013). "Hibbing teacher announces run for governor; will seek GOP endorsement".  
  28. ^ http://candidates.sos.state.mn.us/CandidateFilingResults.aspx?county=0&municipality=0&schooldistrict=0&hospitaldistrict=0&level=1&party=0&federal=True&judicial=True&executive=True&senate=True&representative=True&title=&office=0&candidateid=0
  29. ^ Brooks, Jennifer (June 27, 2013). "GOP state Sen. Dave Thompson announces campaign for Minnesota governor".  
  30. ^ Stassen-Berger, Rachel E. (January 30, 2014). "Sen. Thompson picks Sen. Benson as his gubernatorial running mate".  
  31. ^ Minock, Nick (August 1, 2013). "Former Senate Candidate Kurt Bills Back's Scott Honour for Governor". Northlands News Center. Retrieved August 12, 2013. 
  32. ^ Scheck, Tom (March 7, 2013). "Norm Coleman rules out 2014 run".  
  33. ^ Brooks, Jennifer (June 22, 2013). "More GOP hopefuls prepare to jump into Minnesota governor's race".  
  34. ^ Stassen-Berger, Rachel E. (April 6, 2013). "Minnesota Republican Party elects a new chair".  
  35. ^ Scheck, Tom (February 4, 2013). "Draft Emmer?".  
  36. ^ Salisbury, Bill (June 5, 2013). "Tom Emmer announces candidacy for Congress".  
  37. ^ Stassen-Berger, Rachel E. (December 8, 2012). "Minnesota Republicans hold a 'pick-up-the-pieces' gathering". Star Tribune. Retrieved December 12, 2012. 
  38. ^ Rupar, Aaron (July 5, 2013). "Minnesota Senate leader Hann decides against GOP governor race".  
  39. ^ Kimball, Joe (February 3, 2014). "GOP state Sen. Karin Housley says she won't run for governor".  
  40. ^ Bierschbach, Briana (July 2, 2013). "GOP Sen. Bill Ingebrigtsen considering a run for governor". Politics in Minnesota. Retrieved August 22, 2013. 
  41. ^ Stassen-Berger, Rachel E. (April 19, 2013). "Kline to seek re-election, not Senate or governor's office".  
  42. ^ "Kriesel says he's unlikley to return to politics".  
  43. ^ Stassen-Berger, Rachel E. (March 22, 2013). "Republicans sniffing around bids against Dayton".  
  44. ^ Diaz, Kevin (May 13, 2013). "U.S. Rep. Paulsen rules out run for Minnesota governor or U.S. Senate".  
  45. ^ a b Kessler, Pat (September 20, 2012). "Pawlenty Rules Out Minnesota Electoral Bid In 2014".  
  46. ^ Scheck, Tom (January 15, 2013). "Rosen pondering a run for higher office".  
  47. ^ Scheck, Tom (October 6, 2012). "Downey doesn't rule out run for governor in 2014".  
  48. ^ Other 11%, Undecided 22%
  49. ^ "Events".  
  50. ^ Cox, Peter (May 18, 2014). "Full Independence Party slate set for November elections". Minnesota Public Radio. Retrieved May 19, 2014. 
  51. ^ "GOP and DFL candidates hit the campaign trail". TwinCities.com. June 2, 2014. Retrieved July 24, 2014. 
  52. ^ http://kstp.com/article/stories/s3556490.shtml Tom Horner Endorses Jeff Johnson For Governor
  53. ^ Bakst, Brian (June 16, 2013). "Independence Party's role in Minnesota 2014 governor's race: TBD".  
  54. ^ "2014 LPMN State Convention".  
  55. ^ "Five statewide candidates up for nomination at LPMN Convention".  
  56. ^ "Liberty Candidates '14".  
  57. ^ Patrick Condon (June 21, 2014). "Pot activists light up Minnesota ballot". Star Tribune. Retrieved July 26, 2014. 
  58. ^ Chris Holbrook (L) 2%, Chris Wright (G) 1%, Other 1%
  59. ^ Chris Holbrook (L) 1%, Chris Wright (G) 1%, Other 1%
  60. ^ Chris Holbrook (L) 0%, Chris Wright (G) 1%, Other 1%
  61. ^ Hannah Nicollet (IP) 7%, Other 3%
  62. ^ Hannah Nicollet (IP) 7%, Other 3%
  63. ^ Hannah Nicollet (IP) 6%, Other 3%

External links

  • Elections & Voting - Minnesota Secretary of State
  • Minnesota gubernatorial election, 2014 at Ballotpedia
  • Campaign contributions at FollowTheMoney.org
Official campaign websites
  • Leslie Davis
  • Mark Dayton
  • Rob Farnsworth
  • Scott Honour
  • Jeff Johnson
  • Hannah Nicollet
  • Marty Seifert
  • Dave Thompson
  • Kurt Zellers

http://www.votewright.org/ Chris Wright

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