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New Hampshire gubernatorial election, 2010

 

New Hampshire gubernatorial election, 2010

New Hampshire gubernatorial election, 2010

November 2, 2010

 
Nominee John H. Lynch John Stephen
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 239,390 205,433
Percentage 52.6% 45.1%

Governor before election

John H. Lynch
Democratic

Elected Governor

John H. Lynch
Democratic

The New Hampshire gubernatorial election of 2010 was held on November 2, 2010. Incumbent Democratic Governor John Lynch was re-elected to a fourth term in 2010.[1]

Background

New Hampshire is one of only two states where the Governor serves for a two-year term, the other being neighboring Vermont. Lynch was re-elected by landslide margins in 2006 and 2008, and has enjoyed historically high approval ratings. In early 2010, his approval rating showed a downward trend, with an April poll indicating that his approval had fallen below 50% (44% approve, 42% disapprove).[2] After the primary elections in mid-September, Lynch's approval rating rebounded (51% approve, 38% disapprove).[3]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

  • John Lynch, incumbent Governor[4]
  • Timothy Robertson, State Representative
  • Frank Sullivan

Results

Democratic primary results[5]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic John Lynch (Incumbent) 49,832 87.5%
Democratic Timothy Robertson 3,771 6.6%
Democratic Frank Sullivan 3,377 5.9%
Totals 56,980 97.3%

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

  • Jack Kimball, businessman[6]
  • Frank Robert Emiro Sr., State Representative
  • John Stephen, former Health and Human Services Commissioner[7]
  • Karen Testerman, conservative activist[6]

Declined

Polling

Poll source Dates administered Jack Kimball John Stephen Karen Testerman
Public Policy Polling September 11–12, 2010 24% 45% 8%
Public Policy Polling July 23–25, 2010 15% 26% 5%
Public Policy Polling April 17–18, 2010 10% 29% 15%

Results

Republican primary results[5]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican John Stephen 77,962 61.6%
Republican Jack Kimball 31,581 24.9%
Republican Karen Testerman 12,708 10.0%
Republican Frank Emiro 4,394 3.5%
Totals 126,645 96.7%

General election

Candidates

  • John Babiarz, Libertarian
  • John Lynch, Democratic
  • John Stephen, Republican

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
Cook Political Report Solid D[11] October 12, 2010
Sabato's Crystal Ball Leans D[12] October 28, 2010
RealClearPolitics Safe D[13]
Sabato's Crystal Ball Safe D[14] September 30, 2010
CQ Politics Safe D[15] October 12, 2010
Election Projection Solid D hold[16] October 12, 2010

Polling

Poll source Dates administered John Lynch (D) John Stephen (R)
Rasmussen Reports October 27, 2010 51% 45%
WMUR/UNH October 7–12, 2010 51% 38%
American Research Group October 3–5, 2010 51% 41%
Granite State Poll October 1, 2010 51% 34%
American Research Group September 22–26, 2010 42% 40%
Rasmussen Reports September 15, 2010 48% 46%
Public Policy Polling September 11–12, 2010 51% 39%
Rasmussen Reports August 5, 2010 50% 39%
Public Policy Polling July 23–25, 2010 51% 34%
Rasmussen Reports May 26, 2010 47% 35%
Public Policy Polling April 17–18, 2010 47% 36%
Rasmussen Reports April 7, 2010 47% 37%
Rasmussen Reports March 8, 2010 50% 35%
Granite State Poll January 27-February 3, 2010 50% 30%

Results

2010 New Hampshire Governor general election
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic John Lynch (Incumbent) 240,346 52.63% -17.57%
Republican John Stephen 205,616 45.03% +17.43%
Libertarian John Babiarz 10,089 2.21% +0.02%
Write-ins 537 <0.01%
Majority 34,730
Turnout 456,588
Democratic hold Swing

References

  1. ^ "NH Gov. John Lynch Running for 4th Term - FOX44NOW.COM - Burlington/Plattsburgh News, Weather and Sports". FOX44NOW.COM. Retrieved August 21, 2010. 
  2. ^ http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2010/PPP_Release_NH_423.pdf
  3. ^ http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NH_916.pdf
  4. ^ "Gov. Lynch could face difficult re-election bid » New Hampshire » EagleTribune.com, North Andover, MA". Eagletribune.com. April 18, 2010. Retrieved August 21, 2010. 
  5. ^ a b "New Hampshire Gubernatorial Primary Results". Politico. September 14, 2010. Retrieved September 14, 2010. 
  6. ^ a b John Distaso (December 9, 2009). "Testerman steps into the ring in governor's race". The Union Leader. Retrieved January 1, 2010. 
  7. ^ "John Stephen for Governor | New Leadership for New Hampshire". Johnstephen.com. Retrieved August 21, 2010. 
  8. ^ "Republicans land top recruit in New Hampshire - The Scorecard". Politico.Com. Retrieved 2010-08-21. 
  9. ^ "Frank Guinta for Congress". Teamguinta.com. 2010-07-29. Retrieved 2010-08-21. 
  10. ^ "Downing runs for sheriff, Morse for NH Senate » Latest News » EagleTribune.com, North Andover, MA". Eagletribune.com. Retrieved 2010-08-21. 
  11. ^ "Senate".  
  12. ^ "2010 Senate Ratings".  
  13. ^ "Battle for the Senate".  
  14. ^ "2010 Senate Ratings".  
  15. ^ "Race Ratings Chart: Senate".  
  16. ^ "The Battle for Capitol Hill - 2010 Senate". ElectionProjection.com. Retrieved October 12, 2010. 

External links

  • Election Division at New Hampshire Secretary of State
  • New Hampshire Governor Candidates at Project Vote Smart
  • Campaign contributions for 2010 New Hampshire Governor from Follow the Money
  • New Hampshire Governor 2010 from OurCampaigns.com
  • 2010 New Hampshire Gubernatorial General Election: All Head-to-Head Matchups graph of multiple polls from Pollster.com
  • Election 2010: New Hampshire Governor from Rasmussen Reports
  • 2010 New Hampshire Governor Race from Real Clear Politics
  • 2010 New Hampshire Governor's Race from CQ Politics
  • Race Profile in The New York Times
Official campaign sites
  • John Lynch for Governor
  • John Stephen for Governor
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