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Pennsylvania gubernatorial election, 2014

 

Pennsylvania gubernatorial election, 2014

Pennsylvania gubernatorial election, 2014

November 4, 2014

 
Nominee Tom Wolf Tom Corbett
Party Democratic Republican
Running mate Michael J. Stack III Jim Cawley
Popular vote 1,920,355 1,575,511
Percentage 54.93% 45.07%

County results

Governor before election

Tom Corbett
Republican

Elected Governor

Tom Wolf
Democratic

The 2014 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election was held on November 4, 2014, to elect the Governor and Lieutenant Governor of Pennsylvania, concurrently with elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Incumbent Republican Governor Tom Corbett ran for re-election to a second term but was defeated by the Democratic nominee, Tom Wolf.[1]

Corbett was considered vulnerable, as reflected in his low approval ratings. An August 2013 Franklin & Marshall College poll found that only 17% of voters thought Corbett was doing an "excellent" or "good" job, only 20% thought he deserved to be reelected, and 62% said the state was "off on the wrong track".[2] Politico called Corbett the most vulnerable incumbent governor in the United States,[3] The Washington Post ranked the election as the most likely for a party switch,[4] and the majority of election forecasters rated it "likely Democratic".

Despite Corbett's unpopularity and speculation that he would face a primary challenge,[5] he was unopposed in the Republican primary. The Democrats nominated businessman and former Secretary of the Pennsylvania Department of Revenue Tom Wolf, who defeated U.S. Representative Allyson Schwartz, Pennsylvania Treasurer Robert McCord and former Secretary of the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection Kathleen McGinty in the primary election.[6]

In primary elections for lieutenant governor, which were held separately, incumbent Republican Lieutenant Governor Jim Cawley was renominated unopposed and the Democrats selected State Senator Michael J. Stack III.

Background

Democrats and Republicans have alternated in the governorship of Pennsylvania every eight years from 1950 to 2010.[7] This has been referred to as "the cycle",[8][9] but it was broken with a Democratic Party win in 2014. Pennsylvania has also voted against the party of the sitting president in 18 of the last 19 gubernatorial contests dating back to 1938; Democrats lost 16 of the previous 17 Pennsylvania gubernatorial races with a Democratic president in the White House, a pattern begun in 1860.[10] The last incumbent Governor to be defeated for re-election was Democrat William Bigler in 1854. Until 1968, governors could only serve one term; the state constitution now allows governors to serve two consecutive terms.[11]

Republican primary

Incumbent Tom Corbett filed to run, as did Bob Guzzardi, an attorney and conservative activist. However, Guzzardi failed to file a statement of financial interests as required by law, after being told by an employee of the State Department that it was unnecessary. Four Republicans, backed by the state Republican Party, sued to have him removed from the race. The case reached the state Supreme Court, which ordered that Guzzardi's name be struck from the ballot.[12]

Candidates

Declared

Disqualified

Declined

Endorsements

Polling

Results

Republican primary results[51]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Tom Corbett (incumbent) 373,465 100%
Totals 373,465 100%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Withdrew

Declined

Endorsements

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
John
Hanger
Tom
Knox
Jo Ellen
Litz
Robert
McCord
Kathleen
McGinty
Max
Myers
Ed
Pawl-
owski
Allyson
Schwartz
Joe
Sestak
Tim
Solobay
Mike
Stack
Jack
Wagner
Tom
Wolf
Other Unde-
cided
Muhlenberg May 13–15, 2014 414 ±5% 11% 7% 16% 41% 25%
Harper May 12–13, 2014 559 ±4.14% 15% 5% 15% 50% 16%
F&M College May 6–12, 2014 530 ±4.3% 11% 6% 19% 41% 3% 20%
Muhlenberg April 28–30, 2014 417 ±5% 13% 3% 14% 42% 28%
GQR** Mar. 31–Apr. 3, 2014 600 ±? 14% 5% 12% 52% 16%
F&M College March 25–31, 2014 524 ±4.3% 8% 6% 9% 40% 6% 31%
Harper Feb. 22–23, 2014 501 ±4.38% 7% 8% 6% 14% 7% 40% 19%
F&M College Feb. 18–23, 2014 548 ±4.2% 1% 3% 1% 9% 36% 1% 48%
PPP Nov. 22–25, 2013 436 ±4.7% 8% 2% 10% 9% 2% 4% 21% 17% 2% 27%
Harper Nov. 9–10, 2013 649 ±3.85% 7% 12% 15% 6% 22% 5% 34%
GHY^ Aug. 27–29, 2013 506 ± 4.4% 6% 6% 25% 6% 57%
BSG* July 16–18, 2013 800 ±3.46% 10% 15% 34% 11% 30%
Quinnipiac May 30–Jun. 4, 2013 460 ± 4.6% 1% 4% 5% 1% 1% 18% 1% 2% 1% 63%
Quinnipiac April 19–24, 2013 547 ± 4.2% 0% 3% 1% 15% 15% 1% 3% 2% 60%
GSG March 9–12, 2013 601 ± 4% 1% 5% 5% 3% 18% 15% 3% 1% 2% 47%
1% 7% 7% 3% 21% 3% 2% 2% 54%
12% 31% 7% 49%
GQR** March 2–7, 2013 602 ±3.99% 1% 1% 7% 3% 16% 21% 2% 3% 1% 45%
Harper Feb. 27–28, 2013 ? ±? 0.82% 2.88% 7% 18.52% 19.75% 1.23% 49.79%
  • ** Internal poll for the Tom Wolf Campaign
  • ^ Internal poll for the Kathleen McGinty Campaign
  • * Internal poll for the Allyson Schwartz Campaign

Results

Democratic primary results[51]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Tom Wolf 488,917 57.86%
Democratic Allyson Schwartz 149,027 17.64%
Democratic Robert McCord 142,311 16.84%
Democratic Kathleen McGinty 64,754 7.66%
Totals 845,009 100%

General election

Spending

As of mid-October, Wolf had raised $27.6 million and spent $21.1 million while Corbett had raised $20.6 million and spent $19.3 million. The two campaigns had run over 21,000 television ads, costing over $13 million. [130]

Predictions

Source Ranking
The Cook Political Report[131] Likely D
Daily Kos Elections[132] Safe D
Governing[133] Likely D
Real Clear Politics[134] Likely D
The Rothenberg Political Report[135] Likely D
Sabato's Crystal Ball[136] Safe D

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Tom
Corbett (R)
Tom
Wolf (D)
Other Undecided
Muhlenberg College October 27–29, 2014 409 ± 5% 39% 51% 6% 4%
Magellan Strategies October 27–28, 2014 1,433 ± 2.6% 43.3% 49.6% 7.1%
Harper Polling October 26–27, 2014 680 ± 3.76% 40% 50% 10%
Franklin & Marshall October 20–26, 2014 326 LV ± 5.1% 40% 53% 1% 5%
738 RV ± 3.4% 37% 53% 1% 9%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov October 16–23, 2014 3,111 ± 3% 39% 52% 0% 8%
Magellan Strategies October 13–14, 2014 1,131 ± 2.9% 42.2% 49.1% 8.7%
Quinnipiac University September 30–October 5, 2014 907 ± 3.3% 38% 55% 2% 5%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov September 20–October 1, 2014 3,283 ± 2% 41% 50% 0% 9%
Robert Morris University September 26–29, 2014 500 ± 4% 33.8% 56.8% 9.4%
Mercyhurst University September 15–24, 2014 479 ± 4.48% 28% 43% 2% 27%
Franklin & Marshall September 15–22, 2014 231 LV ± 6.4% 37% 57% 2% 5%
520 RV ± 4.3% 33% 54% 4% 9%
Magellan Strategies September 17–18, 2014 1,120 ± 2.9% 40% 48.6% 11.4%
Muhlenberg College September 16–18, 2014 429 ± 5% 33% 54% 4% 9%
Quinnipiac University September 3–8, 2014 1,161 ± 2.9% 35% 59% 2% 4%
Harper Polling September 2–3, 2014 665 ± 3.2% 41% 52% 7%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov August 18–September 2, 2014 3,560 ± 2% 39% 50% 2% 10%
Robert Morris University August 18–22, 2014 500 ± 4.5% 24.7% 55.5% 19.8%
Franklin & Marshall August 18–25, 2014 520 ± 4.3% 24% 49% 1% 25%
Magellan Strategies July 30–31, 2014 1,214 ± 2.83% 38.1% 50.3% 11.6%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov July 5–24, 2014 4,150 ± ? 39% 52% 2% 7%
Franklin & Marshall June 23–29, 2014 502 ± 4.4% 25% 47% 1% 27%
Quinnipiac University May 29–June 2, 2014 1,308 ± 2.7% 33% 53% 1% 13%
Public Policy Polling May 30–June 1, 2014 835 ± 3.4% 30% 55% 15%
Rasmussen Reports May 27–28, 2014 750 ± 4% 31% 51% 4% 14%
Quinnipiac University February 19–24, 2014 1,405 ± 2.6% 33% 52% 1% 13%
Gravis Marketing January 22–23, 2014 717 ± 4% 34% 41% 24%
Quinnipiac University December 11–16, 2013 1,061 ± 3% 37% 44% 1% 19%
Public Policy Polling November 22–25, 2013 693 ± 3.7% 32% 44% 24%
Quinnipiac University March 6–11, 2013 1,116 ± 2.9% 39% 39% 2% 20%
Public Policy Polling March 8–10, 2013 504 ± 4.4% 33% 42% 25%
Public Policy Polling January 4–6, 2013 675 ± 3.8% 41% 29% 30%

Results

Pennsylvania gubernatorial election, 2014[137]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Tom Wolf 1,920,355 54.93%
Republican Tom Corbett (Incumbent) 1,575,511 45.07%
Totals 3,495,866 100%
Democratic gain from Republican

See also

References

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External links

  • Pennsylvania gubernatorial election, 2014 at Ballotpedia
  • Campaign contributions at FollowTheMoney.org
Official campaign websites
  • Tom Corbett for Governor Republican
  • Tom Wolf for Governor Democrat
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