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United States Senate election in Alaska, 2008

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United States Senate election in Alaska, 2008

United States Senate election in Alaska, 2008

November 4, 2008

 
Nominee Mark Begich Ted Stevens
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 151,767 147,814
Percentage 47.8% 46.5%

U.S. Senator before election

Ted Stevens
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Mark Begich
Democratic

The 2008 United States Senate election in Alaska was held on November 4, 2008. Incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Ted Stevens ran for re-election. It was one of the ten Senate races that U.S. Senator John Ensign of Nevada, the chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, predicted as being most competitive.[1] The primaries were held on Tuesday, August 26.[2] Ted Stevens was challenged by Democratic candidate Mark Begich, the mayor of Anchorage.

On October 27, 2008, Stevens was convicted on seven charges of ethics violations and corruption.[3][4] If reelected, Stevens would have been the first convicted felon elected to the United States Senate.[5] On November 18, 2008, the Associated Press projected that Begich had defeated Stevens, making Stevens the longest-serving U.S. Senator ever to lose a re-election bid.[6] Stevens conceded the race to Begich on November 19.

Background

The FBI investigation and subsequent seven count indictment of Ted Stevens, as well as investigation of the state's only Representative, Don Young (R), generated some negative feelings in Alaska towards Republicans, even among Republican primary voters. Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich (son of the last Democratic Rep. from Alaska, Nick Begich) was courted by both the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. In February 2008, he announced the formation of an exploratory committee for the Senate seat. The possible Democratic field also included former Governor Tony Knowles, State Rep. Eric Croft and State Senators Hollis French and Johnny Ellis.[7] Former Minority Leader of the Alaska House of Representatives Ethan Berkowitz was considered a possible candidate, but he decided to challenge Don Young instead. Sensing discontentment within the GOP, conservative Republican Dave Cuddy announced his candidacy for U.S. Senate in December 2007.

Stevens was perceived by many as corrupt, but was also highly regarded by many Alaskans for his ability to steer federal funding toward the state; he was the longest-serving Republican in the Senate entering 2008 (first elected in 1968), and through his seniority he amassed a great deal of influence there. The selection of Alaskan Governor Sarah Palin as the vice-presidential running-mate of Republican presidential candidate John McCain in late August 2008 coincided with a substantial improvement in Stevens' performance in opinion polls. A poll in August showed Begich with a 17% lead, but in early September a poll from the same source showed Begich leading Stevens by only 3%. Begich's campaign and some observers attributed this change to Palin's popularity and the enthusiasm stimulated by her selection, although Palin's own reputation was partially based on her perceived opposition to Stevens or distance from him. The Stevens campaign disputed the low numbers shown in the August poll and said that the numbers had improved in September because Stevens had begun heavily campaigning. His campaign also presented the relationship between Palin and Stevens as positive, contrary to some portrayals.[8]

Stevens was convicted of seven felony counts of failing to report gifts on October 27, 2008. This was considered a serious setback in his already difficult bid for re-election; he had requested and received a quick trial in hopes of winning an acquittal before election day.[9] After the verdict, Stevens maintained his innocence and said that he was still running for re-election.[10]

ADL primary

The ADL ballot contained all of the primary candidates for the Alaska Democratic Party, the Alaskan Independence Party, and Libertarian Party of Alaska.

Candidates

Alaskan Independence

Democratic

Libertarian

Results

Alaska ADL senatorial primary, 2008[15]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Mark Begich 63,747 84.12%
Democratic Ray Metcalfe 5,480 7.23%
Alaskan Independence Bob Bird 4,216 5.56%
Libertarian Fredrick Haase 1,375 1.81%
Democratic Frank Vondersaar 965 1.27%
Totals 75,783 100.00%

Republican primary

Candidates

  • Ted Stevens, Incumbent U.S. Senator
  • Michael Corey
  • David Cuddy, Former state legislator[16]
  • Gerald Heikes, Minister
  • Rick Sikma, Pastor
  • Vic Vickers, former assistant State Comptroller
  • Richard Wanda

Campaign

With three and a half weeks to go before the primary, Stevens still held a large polling lead over chief rival Dave Cuddy, 59% to 19%.[17] Political newcomer Vic Vickers said on July 28 that he expected to pour $750 000 of his own money into his bid to defeat Stevens.[18] According to Rasmussen polling of Alaskans, Cuddy "does nearly as well against Begich" as Stevens, trailing Begich 50% to 35%, while Vickers trailed the expected Democratic nominee 55% to 22%.[19]

Results

In the Republican primary on August 26, results from 70.5% of precincts showed Stevens winning with 63% of the vote; Cuddy had 28% and Vickers had 6%.[20]

Alaska Republican senatorial primary, 2008[15]
Candidate Votes Percentage
Ted Stevens (incumbent) 66,900 63.52%
David Cuddy 28,364 26.93%
Vic Vickers 6,102 5.79%
Michael Corey 1,496 1.42%
Roderic Sikma 1,133 1.08%
Rich Wanda 732 0.69%
Gerald Heikes 599 0.57%
Totals 105,326 100.00%

General election

Candidates

Major

  • Mark Begich (D), Mayor of Anchorage
  • Ted Stevens (R), incumbent U.S. Senator

Minor

  • Bob Bird (AI)
  • Fredrick "David" Haase (L)
  • Ted Gianoutsos (I)

Predictions

CQ Politics had rated this race as Leans Democrat.[21] The Cook Political Report considered it Lean Democrat.[22] The Rothenberg Political Report considered it a Lean Takeover.[23]

Polling

Poll Source Dates administered Begich Stevens

Research 2000

October 28–30, 2008 58% 36%

Rasmussen Reports

October 28, 2008 52% 44%

Research 2000

October 14–16, 2008 48% 46%
Rasmussen Reports October 6, 2008 48% 49%

Research 2000

September 15–17, 2008 50% 44%

Rasmussen Reports

September 9, 2008 48% 46%
Ivan Moore Research August 30 - September 2, 2008 49% 46%
Ivan Moore Research July 31, 2008 56% 35%
Rasmussen Reports July 30, 2008 50% 37%
Rasmussen Reports July 17, 2008 52% 44%

Research 2000

July 14–16, 2008 47% 45%
Rasmussen Reports June 16, 2008 44% 46%
Rasmussen Reports May 14, 2008 47% 45%
Research 2000 May 12–14, 2008 48% 43%
DSCC May 6–10, 2008 51% 44%
Rasmussen Reports April 7, 2008 45% 46%
Research 2000 December 3–6, 2007 47% 41%

Results

Begich won the election by 3,953 votes. Incumbent Stevens had held a lead of over 3,000 votes after election night, but a tally of nearly 60,000 absentee and mail-in ballots released on November 12 erased that lead and reduced the vote margin separating the candidates to less than 0.5%,[24] with further counting, released on November 18, increasing the margin to more than 1% in favor of Begich. On November 19, 2008, Stevens conceded to Begich.[25]

United States Senate election in Alaska, 2008[26]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Mark Begich 151,767 47.77% +37.26%
Republican Ted Stevens (inc.) 147,814 46.52% -31.65%
Alaskan Independence Bob Bird 13,197 4.15% +1.22%
Libertarian Fredrick Haase 2,483 0.78% -0.25%
Independent Ted Gianoutsos 1,385 0.44%
Write-ins 1,077 0.34%
Majority 3,953 1.24% -66.42%
Turnout 317,723
Democratic gain from Republican Swing

See also

References

  1. ^ Kate Phillips, G.O.P. Leader Maps Senate Elections The New York Times, June 13, 2008
  2. ^ 2008 Primary Election Information Division of Elections from the Alaska Secretary of State
  3. ^ Alaska Senator Found Guilty of Lying About Gifts, New York Times, October 27, 2008
  4. ^ "Alaska Sen. Ted Stevens found guilty of lying about gifts from contractor". Los Angeles Times. October 27, 2008. Retrieved October 27, 2008. 
  5. ^ Yardley, William. "Senator Stevens hanging by a thread in Alaska." The New York Times, November 5, 2008. Retrieved on November 5, 2008
  6. ^ "Stevens loses Alaska Senate seat to Democrat". Associated Press (MSNBC). November 18, 2008. Retrieved November 18, 2008. 
  7. ^ Nichols, John (July 30, 2007). "Ted Stevens -- and Senate GOP -- In Trouble".  
  8. ^ Josh Kraushaar, "Palin popularity buoys Stevens", Politico.com, September 10, 2008.
  9. ^ John Bresnahan, "Jury: Stevens guilty on seven counts", Politico, October 27, 2008.
  10. ^ Glenn Thrush and Daniel W. Reilly, "Stevens vows to remain a candidate", Politico, October 27, 2008.
  11. ^ Aaron Blake (February 27, 2008). "Begich’s entry tees up first tough reelection race in Stevens's career".  
  12. ^ "Founder of Republican Moderate Party of Alaska Will Run as a Democrat for US Senate". Ballot Access News. December 3, 2007. 
  13. ^ Fredrick "David" Haase - Libertarian. The Anchorage Daily News. August 19, 2008.
  14. ^ DavidforAlaska.com.
  15. ^ a b "Official Primary Election Results" (PDF). State of Alaska: Division of Elections. September 18, 2008. Retrieved December 3, 2008. 
  16. ^ Anchorage developer plans to challenge Stevens for Senate seat Fairbanks Daily News-Miner December 22, 2007. Retrieved December 26, 2007
  17. ^ Stevens Sinks in Alaska Senate Race Political Wire August 2, 2008
  18. ^ Newcomer candidate says he can beat Stevens Anchorage Daily News July 29, 2008.
  19. ^ "50% still regard Stevens favorably and don’t want him to resign." Alaska Daily News July 31, 2008.
  20. ^ Michael O'Brien, "Stevens wins primary, Young locked in a nail biter", TheHill.com, August 27, 2008.
  21. ^ Race Ratings Chart: Senate CQ Politics
  22. ^ 2008 Senate Race Ratings The Cook Political Report, October 9, 2008
  23. ^ 2008 Senate Ratings The Rothenberg Political Report, September 29, 2008
  24. ^ Cockerham, Sean (November 13, 2008). "Begich takes lead in latest vote count".  
  25. ^ Stevens concedes; Begich savors first day of senate elect status Alaska Public Radio Network retrieved on November 19, 2008
  26. ^ http://clerk.house.gov/member_info/electionInfo/2008election.pdf

External links

  • Alaska Division of Elections
  • U.S. Congress candidates for Alaska at Project Vote Smart
  • Alaska U.S. Senate race from Congress.org
  • Alaska, U.S. Senate from CQ Politics
  • Alaska U.S. Senate race from The Green Papers
  • Alaska U.S. Senate from OurCampaigns.com
  • Alaska U.S. Senate race from 2008 Race Tracker
  • Campaign contributions from OpenSecrets.org
  • Stevens vs Begich graph of multiple polls from Pollster.com
  • 2008 Election from The Anchorage Daily News newspaper

Official campaign websites

  • Mark Begich, Democratic candidate
  • Ted Gianoutsos, Veterans Party candidate
  • Vic Vickers, Republican candidate
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