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United States Senate election in Louisiana, 2014

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United States Senate election in Louisiana, 2014

United States Senate election in Louisiana, 2014

November 4 and December 6, 2014

 
Candidate Bill Cassidy Mary Landrieu
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 712,330 561,099
Percentage 55.94% 44.06%

Runoff results by Parish

U.S. Senator before election

Mary Landrieu
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

Bill Cassidy
Republican

The 2014 United States Senate election in Louisiana was held on November 4, 2014, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Louisiana. As no candidate won a majority of the vote, a runoff was held on December 6, 2014.

Incumbent Democratic Senator Mary Landrieu ran for re-election to a fourth term in office against Republican U.S. Representative Bill Cassidy and several other candidates.

Under Louisiana's jungle primary system, all candidates appear on the same ballot, regardless of party. Since no candidate received a majority of the vote in the primary election, a runoff election was held on December 6 between the top two candidates, Landrieu and Cassidy.[1]

In the December 6 runoff, Cassidy defeated Landrieu by 56% to 44%, settling the fate of the final Senate seat of the 2014 midterm elections. Cassidy's victory gave the Republicans 54 seats in the 114th Congress.[2] Cassidy will become the first Republican to hold this seat since William P. Kellogg did so in 1883.

Background

Elections in Louisiana, with the exception of U.S. presidential elections, follow a variation of the open primary system called the jungle primary. Candidates of any and all parties are listed on one ballot; voters need not limit themselves to the candidates of one party. Unless one candidate takes more than 50% of the vote in the first round, a run-off election is then held between the top two candidates, who may in fact be members of the same party. This scenario occurred in the 7th District congressional race in 1996, when Democrats Chris John and Hunter Lundy made the runoff for the open seat, and in 1999, when Republicans Suzanne Haik Terrell and Woody Jenkins made the runoff for Commissioner of Elections.

Candidates

Democratic Party

Declared

Withdrew

  • Raymond Brown, minister, civil rights activist and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 1998 and 2002 (endorsed Landrieu)[7][8]

Declined

Republican Party

Declared

Withdrew

Declined

Libertarian Party

Declared

  • Brannon McMorris, electrical engineer[27]

Jungle primary

Endorsements

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Mary
Landrieu (D)
Bill
Cassidy (R)
Paul
Hollis (R)
Rob
Maness (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling October 30–November 1, 2014 1,003 ± 3.1% 43% 35% 15% 1% 6%
NBC News/Marist October 26–30, 2014 630 LV ± 3.9% 44% 36% 15% 1% 4%
961 RV ± 3.2% 42% 35% 15% 1% 6%
Suffolk University October 23–26, 2014 500 ± 4% 36.4% 34.8% 11.2% 2.6%[42] 15%
University of New Orleans October 11–24, 2014 590 ± 4.1% 38% 33% 7% 1% 21%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov October 16–23, 2014 1,316 ± 5% 37% 32% 5% 5%[43] 19%
Rasmussen Reports October 22–23, 2014 988 ± 3% 43% 36% 13% 3% 6%
Multi-Quest International October 14–19, 2014 605 ± 4% 36% 32% 6% 3% 23%
Vox Populi Polling October 13–14, 2014 546 ± 4.2% 38% 38% 10% 6%[44] 8%
Rasmussen Reports October 13–14, 2014 965 ± 3% 41% 38% 14% 2% 5%
0ptimus September 30–October 2, 2014 5,711 ± 1.3% 37.8% 35.9% 17.7% 8.6%
Hickman Analytics September 26–October 2, 2014 502 ± 4.4% 39% 30% 6% 5%[45] 19%
Public Policy Polling September 25–28, 2014 1,141 ± 2.9% 42% 34% 12% 2% 10%
CNN/ORC September 22–25, 2014 610 LV ± 4% 43% 40% 9% 4% 4%
866 RV ± 3.5% 45% 35% 8% 6% 5%
Fox News September 14–16, 2014 617 ± 4% 31% 35% 7% 16%
Gravis Marketing September 5–9, 2014 426 ± 5% 45% 30% 14% 12%
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner August 28–September 2, 2014 600 ± 4% 47% 32% 13% 8%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov August 18–September 2, 2014 870 ± 5% 36% 38% 10% 3%[46] 11%
Senate Conservatives Fund August 16–18, 2014 600 ± 4% 43% 32% 16% 1% 8%
Public Policy Polling June 26–29, 2014 664 ± 3.8% 44% 27% 5% 8% 17%
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner May 5–8, 2014 600 ± 4% 48% 29% 8% 7% 8%
Southern Media & Opinion Research April 28–30, 2014 600 ± 4% 36% 35.4% 3.9% 7.1% 17.7%
New York Times/Kaiser Family April 8–15, 2014 946 ± ? 42% 18% 5% 4% 3% 27%
Harper Polling April 7–9, 2014 538 ± 4.22% 40% 35% 3% 4% 18%
Magellan Strategies March 24–26, 2014 600 ± 4.1% 39.3% 26.3% 3.4% 2.6% 28.4%
Public Policy Polling February 6–9, 2014 635 ± 3.9% 43% 25% 5% 3% 25%
Harper Polling January 19–20, 2014 992 ± 3.11% 42% 29% 4% 4% 20%
Southern Media & Opinion Research November 6–12, 2013 600 ± 4% 41% 33.8% 9.8% 15.5%
Public Policy Polling August 16–19, 2013 721 ± 3.6% 48% 24% 5% 23%

Results

Jungle primary results by parish
United States Senate election jungle primary in Louisiana, 2014[47]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Mary Landrieu (Incumbent) 619,402 42.08%
Republican Bill Cassidy 603,048 40.97%
Republican Rob Maness 202,556 13.76%
Republican Thomas Clements 14,173 0.96%
Libertarian Brannon McMorris 13,034 0.89%
Democratic Wayne Ables 11,323 0.77%
Democratic William Waymire 4,673 0.32%
Democratic Vallian Senegal 3,835 0.26%
Totals 1,473,826 100%

Runoff

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Mary
Landrieu (D)
Bill
Cassidy (R)
Other Undecided
Rasmussen Reports December 2–4, 2014 1,000 ± 3% 40% 56% 4%
WPA Opinion Research November 24–25, 2014 500 ± 4.4% 33% 57% 10%
GEB International November 20, 2014 850 ± 3.36% 33.9% 59.8% 6.4%
JJMC Analytics November 20, 2014 754 ± 3.6% 40% 55% 5%
Rasmussen Reports November 16–19, 2014 1,000 ± 3% 41% 56% 3%
Vox Populi Polling November 16–17, 2014 761 ± 3.55% 42% 53% 5%
Gravis Marketing November 12–14, 2014 643 ± 4% 38% 59% 3%
Public Policy Polling October 30–November 1, 2014 1,003 ± 3.1% 47% 48% 5%
NBC News/Marist October 26–30, 2014 630 LV ± 3.9% 45% 50% 1% 5%
961 RV ± 3.2% 44% 49% 2% 6%
Suffolk University October 23–26, 2014 500 ± 4% 40.6% 48% 11.4%
University of New Orleans October 11–24, 2014 590 ± 4.1% 43% 51% 6%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov October 16–23, 2014 1,316 ± 5% 42% 46% 0% 12%
Rasmussen Reports October 22–23, 2014 988 ± 3% 46% 50% 4%
Multi-Quest International October 14–19, 2014 605 ± 4% 40% 43% 17%
Vox Populi Polling October 13–14, 2014 546 ± 4.2% 44% 48% 8%
Rasmussen Reports October 13–14, 2014 965 ± 3% 43% 52% 5%
Hickman Analytics September 26–October 2, 2014 502 ± 4.4% 45% 46% 9%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov September 20–October 1, 2014 2,187 ± 2% 41% 47% 0% 13%
Public Policy Polling September 25–28, 2014 1,141 ± 2.9% 45% 48% 7%
CNN/ORC September 22–25, 2014 610 LV ± 4% 47% 50% 3%
866 RV ± 3.5% 51% 45% 4%
Fox News September 14–16, 2014 617 ± 4% 38% 51% 9%
Gravis Marketing September 5–9, 2014 426 ± 5% 45% 45% 10%
Rasmussen Reports September 2–3, 2014 800 ± 3.5% 41% 44% 9% 6%
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner August 28–September 2, 2014 600 ± 4% 48% 46% 6%
Senate Conservatives Fund August 16–18, 2014 600 ± 4% 49% 43% 8%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov July 5–24, 2014 1,456 ± 3.5% 46% 47% 6% 2%
Rasmussen Reports July 8–9, 2014 750 ± 4% 46% 43% 5% 6%
Public Policy Polling June 26–29, 2014 664 ± 3.8% 47% 47% 6%
Magellan Strategies June 5–8, 2014 719 ± 3.65% 44% 50% 5% 1%
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner May 5–8, 2014 600 ± 4% 49% 49% 2%
Magellan Strategies April 14–15, 2014 775 ± 3.52% 42% 44% 10% 4%
Harper Polling April 7–9, 2014 538 ± 4.22% 43% 47% 10%
Voter/Consumer Research February 20–25, 2014 600 ± 4% 45% 44% 1% 9%
Hickman Analytics February 17–24, 2014 404 ± 4.9% 42% 46% 11%
Public Policy Polling February 6–9, 2014 635 ± 3.9% 45% 44% 10%
Rasmussen Reports January 28–29, 2014 500 ± 4.5% 40% 44% 5% 11%
Harper Polling January 19–20, 2014 992 ± 3.11% 44% 45% 11%
Public Policy Polling October 14–15, 2013 632 ± 3.9% 48% 41% 11%
Harper Polling September 22–23, 2013 561 ± 4.14% 46% 44% 10%
Public Policy Polling August 16–19, 2013 721 ± 3.6% 50% 40% 10%
Harper Polling August 14–15, 2013 596 ± 4.01% 45% 47% 8%
On Message Inc. August 13–15, 2013 600 ± 4.0% 45% 43% 12%
Harper Polling April 6–7, 2013 541 ± 4.21% 46% 41% 13%
Public Policy Polling February 8–12, 2013 603 ± 4% 50% 40% 10%

Results

United States Senate election runoff in Louisiana, 2014[48]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Bill Cassidy 712,330 55.94%
Democratic Mary Landrieu (Incumbent) 561,099 44.06%
Totals 1,273,429 100%
Republican gain from Democratic

See also

References

  1. ^ http://www.cnn.com/2014/11/04/politics/louisiana-senate-digital/index.html?hpt=hp_t2
  2. ^ http://online.wsj.com/articles/democratic-sen-mary-landrieu-ousted-in-louisiana-election-by-republican-rep-bill-cassidy-1417919551
  3. ^ a b "A look at candidates signed up for Nov. 4 election".  
  4. ^ "Sen. Mary Landrieu plans to seek a fourth Senate term". NOLA. February 5, 2011. 
  5. ^ "Senate race just getting started". Bayou Buzz. September 3, 2014. Retrieved September 7, 2014. 
  6. ^ "Louisiana's long shot Senate candidates fight system for votes". nola.com. October 14, 2014. Retrieved October 26, 2014. 
  7. ^ "Louisiana US Senate race: An online debate for the future". Bayou Buzz. August 28, 2014. Retrieved September 7, 2014. 
  8. ^ "New Orleans preacher Raymond Brown disqualified from U.S. Senate race". nola.com. September 17, 2014. Retrieved October 26, 2014. 
  9. ^ "It's official: Edwin Edwards is running for Congress". NOLA.com. March 17, 2014. Retrieved March 18, 2014. 
  10. ^ Trygstad, Kyle (April 2, 2013). "Louisiana: Cassidy Challenging Landrieu".  
  11. ^ "Thomas Clements Announces Run for U.S. Senate in 2014".  
  12. ^ Trygstad, Kyle (May 15, 2013). "DeMint-Linked Group Eyes Louisiana Senate Candidate".  
  13. ^ "LOUISIANA". Politics1. December 23, 2013. Retrieved December 24, 2013. 
  14. ^ Cahn, Emily (July 14, 2014). "Louisiana Senate Race Has One Fewer Republican".  
  15. ^ Gibson, Ginger (March 29, 2013). "Mary Landrieu's 2014 Playbook is Her Own". Retrieved March 31, 2013. 
  16. ^ a b Alpert, Bruce (March 5, 2013). "Boustany and Scalise won't run against Landrieu in 2014, but others keep options open".  
  17. ^ Tagean Goddard (15 March 2013). "Dardenne Will Not Challenge Landrieu". Political Wire. Retrieved 16 March 2013. 
  18. ^ Mimms, Sarah (April 4, 2013). "Fleming Won't Join Cassidy In La. Senate Run".  
  19. ^ Alpert, Bruce (December 2, 2013). "State Sen. Guillory rules out run for U.S Senate, endorses Bill Cassidy".  
  20. ^ Catanese, Dave (November 11, 2012). "In 2014, GOP gets third crack at Senate".  
  21. ^ Kevin Allman (April 9, 2013). "Former La. Rep. Jeff Landry forms SuperPAC". Best of New Orleans. Retrieved February 12, 2014. 
  22. ^ Mollie Reilly (January 22, 2013). "'"Tony Perkins Suggests He May Run For David Vitter's Senate Seat: 'I Never Say Never. The Huffington Post. Retrieved February 12, 2014. 
  23. ^ Jaffe, Alexandra (February 12, 2014). Duck Dynasty' patriarch rules out Senate run"'".  
  24. ^ Meredith, Locke (February 6, 2013). "Buddy Roemer, Former Louisiana Governor, discusses how money has corrupted our political systems".  
  25. ^ "Politics in 6th Congressional District already intense". HoumaToday.com. December 24, 2013. Retrieved January 7, 2014. 
  26. ^ Kyle Trygstad (November 4, 2013). "Potential Senate Opponent Instead Backs Cassidy in Louisiana". Roll Call. Retrieved November 4, 2013. 
  27. ^ Blum, Jordan (January 24, 2014). "Senate race now deemed a tossup".  
  28. ^ a b Parmentel, Lamar (April 11, 2013). "Mary Landrieu Lands Impressive Fundraising Quarter". The Daily Kingfish. Retrieved October 28, 2013. 
  29. ^  
  30. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w x y z aa ab ac ad ae af "Endorsements". Bill Cassidy For Senate. Retrieved December 9, 2013. 
  31. ^ https://www.facebook.com/RunBenRun.org/photos/a.630455660350001.1073741828.630067593722141/804596766269222/?type=1&theater
  32. ^ "Sarah Palin endorses Rob Maness for Louisiana U.S. Senate seat". NOLA.com. Retrieved 2014-07-26. 
  33. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u "Endorsements". Rob Maness for Senate. Retrieved October 28, 2013. 
  34. ^ O'Donoghue, Julia (July 28, 2014). "Tony Perkins endorses Rob Maness in Louisiana's Senate race". NOLA.com. Retrieved August 21, 2014. 
  35. ^ Levin, Mark (October 13, 2014). "Mark Levin endorses Rob Maness for Senate". Retrieved October 14, 2014. 
  36. ^ Levin, Mark (October 13, 2014). "Rob Maness for Senate, Louisiana!". Retrieved October 14, 2014. 
  37. ^ Jaffe, Alexandra (November 18, 2013). "Madison Project endorses Maness in Louisiana".  
  38. ^ Harris, J. D. "Louisiana U.S. Senate Jungle Primary Election—November 4, 2014". National Pro–Life Alliance (MPLFCS14 9213686574) (Springfield, Virginia: National Pro-Life Alliance). 
  39. ^ Fri, 02/14/2014 - 20:39 (2014-02-14). "RLC Endorses Col. Rob Maness for U.S. Senate in Louisiana | Republican Liberty Caucus". Rlc.org. Retrieved 2014-07-26. 
  40. ^ Glueck, Katie (October 28, 2013). "Louisiana Senate race 2014: Senate Conservatives Fund endorses Bill Cassidy challenger".  
  41. ^ "Cassidy edges closer to Landrieu in campaign cash in the bank for Louisiana's US Senate race". Daily Journal. 2014-07-15. Retrieved 2014-07-26. 
  42. ^ Wayne Ables (D) 0.8%, Thomas Clements (R) 0.8%, Brannon McMorris (L) 0.6%, Vallian Senegal (D) 0.2%, William Waymire (D) 0.2%
  43. ^ Wayne Ables (D) 0%, Raymond Brown (D) 1%, Thomas Clements (R) 1%, Brannon McMorris (L) 3%, Vallian Senegal (D) 0%, William Waymire (D) 0%, Other 0%
  44. ^ Brannon McMorris (L) 2%, Other 4%
  45. ^ Wayne Ables (D) 0%, Thomas Clements (R) 1%, Brannon McMorris (L) 3%, Vallian Senegal (D) 0%, William Waymire (D) 1%
  46. ^ Thomas Clements 2%, Brannon McMorris 1%, Other 0%
  47. ^ "Official Election Results Results for Election Date: 11/4/2014". Louisiana Secretary of State. Retrieved November 25, 2014. 
  48. ^ "Unofficial Election Results Results for Election Date: 12/6/2014". Louisiana Secretary of State. Retrieved December 7, 2014. 

External links

  • Elections Division from the Louisiana Secretary of State
  • U.S. Senate elections in Louisiana, 2014 at Ballotpedia
  • Campaign contributions at OpenSecrets.org
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