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United States Senate election in New Hampshire, 2010

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United States Senate election in New Hampshire, 2010

United States Senate election in New Hampshire, 2010

November 2, 2010

 
Nominee Kelly Ayotte Paul Hodes
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 272,703 166,538
Percentage 60.2% 36.7%

County results

U.S. Senator before election

Judd Gregg
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Kelly Ayotte
Republican

The 2010 United States Senate election in New Hampshire was held on November 2, 2010, alongside other midterm elections to the United States Senate in other states as well as to the United States House of Representatives. A primary election was held on September 14. Incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Judd Gregg decided to retire instead of seeking a fourth term. Republican nominee Kelly Ayotte won the open seat by over 23 points.

Background

Gregg was reelected with 66% of the vote in 2004, and indicated that he would seek a fourth term in 2010.[1] New Hampshire trended Democratic in the 2006 and 2008 elections, with Republican incumbents losing both of the state's House seats and its other Senate seat to Democrats, but polling conducted in late December 2008 showed Gregg defeating both of the state's U.S. Representatives in a hypothetical match-up.

In February 2009, President Barack Obama offered, and Gregg accepted, nomination to the position of United States Secretary of Commerce.[2] New Hampshire's Democratic Governor John Lynch announced he would appoint Bonnie Newman, former Assistant Secretary of Commerce for economic development in the Reagan administration, to serve as Senator for New Hampshire until the election in 2010.[2] Newman announced that she would not run for election in 2010, nor would she endorse any candidate in the race.[3]

On February 12, 2009, however, Gregg withdrew his nomination for Commerce Secretary. He cited "irresolvable conflicts" over policy related to the Commerce Department as the main reasons for his withdrawal, but also indicated support for President Obama.[4] Gregg continued to serve as a senator from New Hampshire, as he did not resign from the Senate during the nomination process. At the time of the withdrawal, Gregg indicated that he would not run for reelection in 2010. However, at a subsequent press conference, Gregg clarified that he would "probably not" run for reelection, leading to speculation that was not eliminating the possibility completely.[5][6]

On April 1, 2009, Gregg reaffirmed that he would not run.[7]

Meanwhile, Democratic U.S. Representative Paul Hodes began his Senate campaign. He was the only major announced candidate until Attorney General Kelly Ayotte announced her bid for the Republican nomination in early July 2009. On November 9, 2009, Republican Ovide Lamontagne joined the race as well.

Republican primary

Candidates

Endorsements

Polling

Poll source Dates administered Kelly Ayotte Jim Bender Bill Binnie Ovide Lamontagne Undecided/other
Tarrance Group January 13–14, 2010 43% 3% 5% 11% 37%
Research 2000 February 1–3, 2010 36% –– 4% 27% 33%
Public Policy Polling April 21, 2010 43% 11% 19% 5% 21%
Magellan Strategies May 28, 2010 38% 4% 29% 9% 15%
Public Policy Polling July 23–25, 2010 47% 6% 14% 8% 20%
Magellan Strategies September 1, 2010 34% 13% 17% 21% 15%
Public Policy Polling September 11–12, 2010 37% 12% 13% 30% 5%
Magellan Strategies September 12, 2010 35% 10% 14% 31% 10%

Results

Republican primary results[28]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Kelly Ayotte 53,056 38.21%
Republican Ovide Lamontagne 51,397 37.01%
Republican Bill Binnie 19,508 14.05%
Republican Jim Bender 12,611 9.08%
Republican Dennis Lamare 1,388 1.00%
Republican Tom Alciere 499 0.36%
Republican Gerard Beloin 402 0.29%
Totals   138,861 100%%

General election

Candidates

  • Kelly Ayotte (R), former state Attorney General
  • Ken Blevens (L), (campaign site, PVS)
  • Chris Booth (I), (campaign site, PVS)
  • Paul Hodes (D), current U.S. Congressman

Campaign

Hodes has called himself a fiscal conservative, which has been mocked by Ayotte in a TV ad. Hodes has been criticized for supporting President Obama's Economic Recovery package, a carbon energy tax, and Affordable Care Act.[29][30][31] Hodes has criticized Ayotte for numerous controversies. One ad was questioned Ayotte's honesty in dealing with the Lakes Region Ponzi scheme which defrauded investors of almost $80 million.[32]

Ayotte has been endorsed by the Concord Monitor and the Nashua Telegraph.[33]

Debates

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
Cook Political Report Leans R[36] October 28, 2010
Rothenberg Safe R[37] October 22, 2010
Swing State Project Leans R
RealClearPolitics Leans R[38] October 28, 2010
Sabato's Crystal Ball Likely R[39] October 28, 2010
CQ Politics Leans R[40] October 28, 2010
New York Times R[39] October 28, 2010

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Kelly Ayotte (R) Paul Hodes (D) Other Undecided
Granite State Poll June 24–July 1, 2009 558 ± 4.1% 39% 35% 2% 24%
Research 2000 July 13–July 15, 2009 600 ± 4.0% 39% 38% 2% 21%
Rasmussen Reports September 14, 2009 500 ± 4.5% 46% 38% 5% 12%
American Research Group September 30, 2009 566 ± 4.1% 41% 34% –– 25%
Granite State Poll October 2, 2009 503 ± 4.4% 40% 33% 2% 25%
American Research Group December 29, 2009 566 ± 4.1% 43% 36% –– 21%
Rasmussen Reports January 12, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 49% 40% 3% 8%
Granite State Poll January 27–February 3, 2010 500 ± 4.4% 41% 33% 1% 25%
Research 2000 February 1–3, 2010 600 ± 4.0% 46% 39% –– 11%
Rasmussen Reports February 10, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 46% 39% 3% 13%
Rasmussen Reports March 8, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 47% 37% 4% 12%
Rasmussen Reports April 7, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 50% 35% 4% 11%
Public Policy Polling April 17–18, 2010 1,474 ± 2.6% 47% 40% –– 13%
Granite State Poll April 12–21, 2010 512 ± 4.4% 47% 32% –– 21%
Rasmussen Reports May 11, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 50% 38% 3% 9%
Rasmussen Reports July 12, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 49% 37% 7% 7%
Public Policy Polling July 23–25, 2010 900 ± 3.26% 45% 42% –– 13%
WMUR Granite State Poll July 19–27, 2010 453 ± 4.4% 45% 37% 1% 17%
Rasmussen Reports August 5, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 51% 38% 4% 6%
Public Policy Polling September 11–12, 2010 1,959 ± 2.2% 47% 43% –– 9%
Rasmussen Reports September 15, 2010 500 ± 4.5% 51% 44% 1% 4%
American Research Group September 22–26, 2010 800 ± 3.5% 46% 32% 2% 20%
American Research Group October 3–5, 2010 600 ± 4.0% 47% 42% 4% 7%
Rasmussen Reports October 10, 2010 750 ± 4.0% 51% 44% 3% 2%
WMUR/UNH October 7–12, 2010 709 ± 3.7% 50% 35% 1% 12%
Rasmussen Reports October 27, 2010 750 ± 4.0% 56% 41% 2% 1%
Public Policy Polling October 27–29, 2010 1,308 ± 2.7% 56% 41% –– 3%
WMUR/UNH October 27–30, 2010 885 ± 3.3% 54% 36% 2% 8%
WMUR/UNH October 31, 2010 885 ± 3.3% 55% 32% 2% 2%
The Concord October 31, 2010 885 ± 3.3% 56% 32% 2% 4%

Fundraising

Candidate (party) Receipts Disbursements Cash on hand Debt
Kelly Ayotte (R) $4,403,599 $3,397,934 $1,005,664 $26,944
Paul Hodes (D) $4,596,642 $4,346,539 $248,003 $0
Source: Federal Election Commission[41]

Results

General election results[42]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Kelly Ayotte 272,703 60.16% -6.08%
Democratic Paul Hodes 166,538 36.74% +2.99%
Independent Chris Booth 9,285 2.05% N/A
Libertarian Ken Blevens 4,754 1.05% +1.03%
Majority 106,165 23.42%
Total votes 453,280 100%
Republican hold Swing

References

  1. ^ "Gregg confirms 2010 bid for re-election: Calls Dem sweep 'repudiation' of Bush". FOS News. November 5, 2008. Retrieved November 6, 2008. 
  2. ^ a b CNN.com "GOP's Gregg accepts commerce secretary post". CNN.com. February 3, 2009. 
  3. ^ Rhee, Foon (February 3, 2009). "Newman named to replace Gregg". Boston Globe. 
  4. ^ "BREAKING: Gregg withdraws". CNN.com. February 12, 2009. 
  5. ^ "Judd Gregg withdraws as nominee for Commerce secretary, says he won't run in 2010".  
  6. ^ Martin Kady II & David Rogers (February 12, 2009). "'I couldn't be Judd Gregg'". Politico. 
  7. ^ J. Taylor Rushing (April 1, 2009). "Gregg says he definitely won't run again".  
  8. ^ "Republicans land top recruit in New Hampshire - The Scorecard". Politico.Com. Retrieved June 14, 2010. 
  9. ^ Michael McCord (November 4, 2009). "Rye's Binnie makes official his run for U.S. Senate". Sea Coast Online. Retrieved November 21, 2009. 
  10. ^ Kraushaar, Josh (November 8, 2009). "Lamontagne announces Senate campaign - The Scorecard". Politico.Com. Retrieved June 14, 2010. 
  11. ^ "Radio Ad: Judd Gregg Supports Kelly Ayotte in New Radio Spot". Ayotteforsenate.com. Retrieved August 21, 2010. 
  12. ^ Palin endorses Ayotte, hits rivals in Senate race, Kevin Landrigan, The Nashua Telegraph, July 20, 2010
  13. ^ "Kelly Ayotte Statement on Endorsement from Gov. Sarah Palin". Ayotteforsenate.com. Retrieved August 21, 2010. 
  14. ^ "Kelly Ayotte". Tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com. Retrieved August 21, 2010. 
  15. ^ "John McCain Endorses Republican Senate Candidate Kelly Ayotte In Nashua, New Hampshire". YouTube. March 13, 2010. Retrieved August 21, 2010. 
  16. ^ "Candidate - William H. Zeliff, Jr". Our Campaigns. Retrieved June 14, 2010. 
  17. ^ "Senator Warren Rudman Announces Support for Kelly Ayotte". Ayotteforsenate.com. Retrieved August 21, 2010. 
  18. ^ "Former New Hampshire U.S. Marshal Joins Team Ayotte". Ayotteforsenate.com. Retrieved August 21, 2010. 
  19. ^ "Niet compatibele browser". Facebook. Retrieved June 14, 2010. 
  20. ^ "Rico Petrocelli Endorses Ayotte". RedHampshire.com. July 6, 2010. Retrieved August 21, 2010. 
  21. ^ "Senator Jim DeMint Endorses Ovide for Senate". Ovide for Senate. September 1, 2010. Retrieved September 16, 2010. 
  22. ^ McQuaid, Joseph W. (August 29, 2010). "Joseph W. McQuaid: Lamontagne for U.S. Senate".  
  23. ^ "Candidate - Dan Quayle". Our Campaigns. Retrieved June 14, 2010. 
  24. ^ "Ovide Lamontagne for U.S. Senate » Blog Archive". Ovide2010.com. June 10, 2010. Retrieved June 14, 2010. 
  25. ^ Amos Tuck (March 18, 2010). "Gordon Humphrey endorses Ovide Lamontagne. John Babiarz endorses Jim Bender". RedHampshire.com. Retrieved June 14, 2010. 
  26. ^ "Former State Sen. Joe Kenney Endorses Ovide". RedHampshire.com. 2012-01-27. Retrieved 2012-12-11. 
  27. ^ Payam Zarrabizadeh. "Free Stuff". Laura Ingraham. Retrieved June 14, 2010. 
  28. ^ http://www.sos.nh.gov/stateprimary%202010/usssumrep.pdf
  29. ^ http://www.nashuatelegraph.com/opinionletters/883808-263/hodes-gets-prizefor-funniest-tv-ads.html
  30. ^ "Dem Paul Hodes In NH-SEN TV Ad: I'm A 'Fiscal Conservative' Video". Vodpod.com. Retrieved 2012-12-11. 
  31. ^ Jillian Rayfield September 21, 2010, 11:36 AM (2010-09-21). "Rove-Backed Group Attacks Hodes For 'Fiscal Conservative' Claim (VIDEO) | TPMDC". Tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com. Retrieved 2012-12-11. 
  32. ^ http://www.nashuatelegraph.com/news/statenewengland/801156-227/hodes-launches-2nd-attack-ad-against-ayotte.html
  33. ^ http://www.ayotteforsenate.com/campaign-blog/kelly-receives-endorsements-concord-monitor-and-nashua-telegraph
  34. ^ Love, Norma (October 11, 2010). "NH's Hodes, Ayotte clash in 1st debate". The Boston Globe. 
  35. ^ The Washington Post http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/10/28/AR2010102801519.html . 
  36. ^ "Senate".  
  37. ^ "Senate Ratings".  
  38. ^ "Battle for the Senate".  
  39. ^ a b "2010 Senate Ratings".  
  40. ^ "Race Ratings Chart: Senate".  
  41. ^ "2010 House and Senate Campaign Finance for New Hampshire". fec.gov. Retrieved September 6, 2010. 
  42. ^ "New Hampshire Election Results". The New York Times. 

External links

  • New Hampshire State Board of Elections
  • U.S. Congress candidates for New Hampshire at Project Vote Smart
  • New Hampshire U.S. Senate 2010 from OurCampaigns.com
  • Campaign contributions from Open Secrets
  • 2010 New Hampshire Senate General Election: All Head-to-Head Matchups graph of multiple polls from Pollster.com
  • Election 2010: New Hampshire Senate from Rasmussen Reports
  • 2010 New Hampshire Senate Race - Ayotte vs. Hodes from Real Clear Politics
  • 2010 New Hampshire Senate Race from CQ Politics
  • Race profile from The New York Times
Official campaign websites
  • Ovide Lamontange for U.S. Senate
  • Kelly Ayotte for U.S. Senate
  • Jim Bender for U.S. Senate
  • Bill Binnie for U.S. Senate
  • Paul Hodes for U.S. Senate
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