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United States Senate election in Virginia, 2012

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United States Senate election in Virginia, 2012

United States Senate election in Virginia, 2012

November 6, 2012

Turnout 66.4% (voting eligible)[1]
 
Nominee Tim Kaine George Allen
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 2,010,023 1,785,487
Percentage 53.0% 47.0%

U.S. Senate election results map. Blue denotes counties/districts won by Kaine. Red denotes those won by Allen.

U.S. Senator before election

Jim Webb
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

Tim Kaine
Democratic

The 2012 United States Senate election in Virginia took place on November 6, 2012, concurrently with the [4] Kaine won the open seat.

Republican primary

In Virginia, parties have the option of whether to hold a primary or to nominate their candidate through a party convention. In November 2010, the Virginia GOP announced that it had chosen to hold a primary.[5]

Candidates

Declared

Withdrawn

  • Tim Donner – founder of Horizons Television[10]
  • David McCormick – attorney[11]

Declined

Debates

Three debates between Republican candidates were announced before the primary on June 12, 2012. The debates took place in Richmond, Northern Virginia, and Hampton Roads.[17]

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
George
Allen
Someone more
conservative
Undecided
Public Policy Polling December 11–13, 2011 350 ± 5.2% 53% 25% 22%
Public Policy Polling July 21–24, 2011 400 ± 4.9% 58% 23% 19%
Public Policy Polling February 24–27, 2011 400 ± 4.9% 52% 25% 23%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
George
Allen
E. W.
Jackson
Bob
Marshall
David
McCormick
Jamie
Radtke
Undecided
Washington Post April 28 – May 2, 2012 1,101 ± 3.5% 62% 3% 12% 5% 18%
Public Policy Polling April 26–29, 2012 400 ± 4.9% 66% 2% 8% 3% 20%
Public Policy Polling December 11–13, 2011 350 ± 5.2% 67% 2% 3% 2% 5% 21%
Public Policy Polling July 21–24, 2011 400 ± 4.9% 68% 2% 2% 0% 6% 22%

Endorsements

Results

Republican primary results[23]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican George Allen 167,607 65.5%
Republican Jamie Radtke 59,005 23.0%
Republican Bob Marshall 17,302 6.8%
Republican E.W. Jackson 12,083 4.7%
Totals 255,997 100%

General election

Candidates

Only Allen and Kaine qualified for the ballot.

Debates

David Gregory moderated a debate between Kaine and Allen on September 20, 2012. Topics included partisan gridlock in Washington policy making, job creation, tax policy, and Middle East unrest.[26]

External links
  • Complete video of debate at C-SPAN, first debate, September 20, 2012
  • Complete video of debate, C-SPAN, second debate, October 8, 2012
  • Complete video of debate, C-SPAN, third debate, October 18, 2012

Campaign

Once incumbent U.S. Senator Jim Webb decided to retire, many Democratic candidates were speculated. These included U.S. Congressmen Rick Boucher,[27] Gerry Connolly,[28] Glenn Nye,[29] Tom Perriello[30] and Bobby Scott.[31] However, they all declined and encouraged Kaine to run for the seat, believing he would be by far the most electable candidate. Courtney Lynch, former Marine Corps Officer and Fairfax business consultant[32] and Julien Modica, former CEO of the Brain Trauma Recovery & Policy Institute,[32] eventually withdrew from the election, allowing Kaine to be unopposed in the Democratic primary.

Fundraising

Candidate (party) Receipts Disbursements Cash on hand Debt
Tim Kaine (D) $10,390,929 $7,666,452 $2,724,476 $0
George Allen (R) $8,015,948 $4,678,004 $3,337,942 $0
Kevin Chisholm (I) $24,165 $24,162 $0 $0
Terrence Modglin (I) $5,655 $5,389 $266 $0
Source: Federal Election Commission[33][34][35][36]

Top contributors

[37]
Tim Kaine Contribution George Allen Contribution Kevin Chisholm Contribution
League of Conservation Voters $76,568 McGuireWoods LLP $76,950 Valu Net $2,475
Akin Gump Strauss Hauer & Feld $51,650 Altria Group $64,749 Geolq Inc $1,500
University of Virginia $42,075 Alpha Natural Resources $38,000
McGuireWoods LLP $38,550 Elliott Management Corporation $35,913
Covington & Burling $36,700 Koch Industries $35,000
DLA Piper $31,750 Lorillard Tobacco Company $34,715
Bain Capital $30,000 Alliance Resource Partners $33,500
Skadden, Arps, Slate, Meagher & Flom $28,250 Dominion Resources $31,800
Patton Boggs LLP $26,750 Norfolk Southern $31,550
Norfolk Southern $26,000 Boeing $23,750

Top industries

[38]
Tim Kaine Contribution George Allen Contribution Kevin Chisholm Contribution Terrence Modglin Contribution
Lawyers/Law Firms $1,297,792 Retired $709,693 Misc Energy $250 Lawyers/Law Firms $200
Retired $762,722 Real Estate $384,038
Financial Institutions $477,700 Lawyers/Law Firms $348,459
Business Services $373,900 Financial Institutions $299,115
Real Estate $372,829 Leadership PACs $277,000
Lobbyists $287,545 Lobbyists $275,600
Education $282,475 Mining $197,206
Misc Finance $218,600 Oil & Gas $196,400
Leadership PACs $201,500 Insurance $159,065
Entertainment industry $156,279 Misc Finance $157,963

Independent expenditures

In early October 2012, Crossroads GPS announced it would launch a $16 million advertising buy in national races, of which four were this and three other Senate elections.[39]

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Tim
Kaine (D)
George
Allen (R)
Other Undecided
Rasmussen Reports November 4, 2012 750 ± 4% 49% 47% 1% 4%
Public Policy Polling November 3–4, 2012 975 ± 3.1% 52% 46% 2%
NBC/WSJ/Marist November 1–2, 2012 1,165 ± 2.9% 49% 46% 4%
WeAskAmerica October 30–November 1, 2012 1,069 ± 3% 50% 50%
Reuters/Ipsos October 29–31, 2012 703 ± 4.2% 47% 45% 1% 7%
855 ± 3.8% 50% 38% 1% 11%
Zogby/Newsmax October 27–29, 2012 829 ± 3.5% 45% 46% 9%
Zogby/Newsmax October 26–28, 2012 1,076 ± 3% 47% 45% 8%
CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac October 23–28, 2012 1,074 ± 3% 50% 46% 4%
Gravis Marketing October 26, 2012 645 ± 3.9% 46% 48% 5%
Roanoke College October 23–26, 2012 638 ± 4.0% 42% 47% 10%
Washington Post October 22–26, 2012 1,228 ± 3.5% 51% 44% 5%
Rasmussen Reports October 24, 2012 750 ± 4.0% 49% 48% 3%
Rasmussen Reports October 18, 2012 500 ± 4.0% 49% 48% 3%
Old Dominion University September 19–October 17, 2012 465 ± 3.4% 50% 43% 6%
Rasmussen Reports October 11, 2012 750 ± 4.0% 48% 47% 1% 4%
NBC/WSJ/Marist Poll October 7–9, 2012 981 ± 3.1% 47% 46% 7%
We Ask America October 7–9, 2012 1,296 ± 2.9% 41% 46% 13%
CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac October 4–9, 2012 1,288 ± 2.7% 51% 44% 5%
Public Policy Polling October 4–7, 2012 725 ± 3.6% 51% 44% 5%
Rasmussen Reports October 4, 2012 500 ± 4.5% 52% 45% 3%
NBC/WSJ/Marist Poll September 30–October 1, 2012 969 ± 3.1% 49% 44% 1% 7%
Suffolk University September 24–26, 2012 600 ± 4% 44% 44% 12%
Huffpost Politics September 20, 2012 1,000 ± 3% 46% 45% 9%
Gravis Marketing September 17, 2012 2,238 ± 2.2% 43% 48% 9%
FOX NEWS Poll September 16–18, 2012 1,006 ± 3% 47% 43% 1% 9%
CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac September 11–17, 2012 1,485 ± 2.5% 51% 44% 5%
Public Policy Polling September 13–16, 2012 1,021 ± 3.1% 47% 46% 7%
Washington Post September 12–16, 2012 847 ± 4% 51% 43% 3% 4%
Rasmussen Reports September 13, 2012 500 ± 4.5% 47% 45% 2% 6%
NBC/WSJ/Marist Poll September 9–11, 2012 996 ± 3.1% 46% 46% 8%
Gravis Marketing September 8–9, 2012 2,238 ± 2.2% 43% 48% 10%
Rasmussen Reports August 23, 2012 500 ± 4.5% 45% 45% 2% 8%
Public Policy Polling August 16–19, 2012 855 ± 3.4% 46% 46% 9%
Rasmussen Reports August 7, 2012 500 ± 4.5% 46% 46% 2% 6%
Quinnipiac July 31–August 6, 2012 1,412 ± 2.6% 48% 46% 6%
Rasmussen Reports July 16–17, 2012 500 ± 4.5% 46% 45% 5% 5%
Quinnipiac July 10–16, 2012 1,673 ± 2.4% 44% 46% 1% 10%
Public Policy Polling July 5–8, 2012 647 ± 3.9% 46% 44% 11%
We Ask America June 25, 2012 1,106 ± 2.95% 35% 44% 21%
Quinnipiac May 30–June 4, 2012 1,282 ± 2.7% 44% 43% 2% 10%
Rasmussen Reports June 3, 2012 500 ± 4.5% 46% 44% 3% 6%
Marist May 17–20, 2012 1,076 ± 3% 49% 43% 9%
Washington Post April 28–May 2, 2012 964 ± 4% 46% 46% 8%
Public Policy Polling April 26–29, 2012 680 ± 3.8% 46% 45% 9%
Rasmussen Reports April 23, 2012 500 ± 4.5% 45% 46% 4% 5%
Roanoke College March 26–April 5, 2012 537 ± 4.2% 39% 46% 15%
Rasmussen Reports March 20, 2012 500 ± 4.5% 44% 46% 3% 7%
Quinnipiac March 13–18, 2012 1,034 ± 3.1% 47% 44% 1% 8%
NBC News/Marist February 29–March 2, 2012 2,518 ± 2% 48% 39% 14%
Roanoke College February 13–26, 2012 607 ± 4.0% 37% 45% 19%
Rasmussen Reports February 21, 2012 500 ± 4.5% 46% 46% 3% 5%
CNU/Times-Dispatch February 4–13, 2012 1,018 ± 3.1% 40% 42% 2% 16%
Quinnipiac February 1–6, 2012 1,544 ± 2.5% 45% 44% 1% 9%
Mason-Dixon January 16–18, 2012 625 ± 3.9% 46% 46% 8%
Quinnipiac December 13–19, 2011 1,135 ± 2.9% 42% 44% 1% 12%
Public Policy Polling December 10–12, 2011 600 ± 4.0% 47% 42% 11%
Quinnipiac October 3–9, 2011 1,459 ± 2.6% 45% 44% 1% 9%
CNU/Times-Dispatch October 3–8, 2011 1,027 ± 3.1% 44% 42% 3% 12%
Rasmussen Reports September 28, 2011 500 ± 4.5% 46% 45% 3% 7%
Quinnipiac September 7–12, 2011 1,368 ± 4.0% 44% 45% 1% 9%
Public Policy Polling July 21–24, 2011 500 ± 4.4% 46% 43% 11%
Quinnipiac June 21–27, 2011 1,434 ± 2.6% 43% 42% 2% 11%
Public Policy Polling May 5–8, 2011 547 ± 4.2% 46% 44% 10%
Washington Post April 28–May 4, 2011 1,040 ± 3.5% 46% 46% 6%
Public Policy Polling February 24–27, 2011 524 ± 3.5% 47% 47% 6%
Public Policy Polling November 10–13, 2010 551 ± 4.2% 50% 44% 6%

Results

United States Senate election in Virginia, 2012
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Tim Kaine 2,010,023 52.87% +3.4%
Republican George Allen 1,785,487 46.96% -2.2%
Write-In Write-In 6,587 0.17%
Majority 224,536 6.0% +5.6%
Turnout 3,802,097

See also

References

  1. ^ Dr. Michael McDonald (February 9, 2013). "2012 General Election Turnout Rates".  
  2. ^ Trygstad, Kyle (February 9, 2011). "Webb Won't Seek Re-Election".  
  3. ^ "Kaine hits the road to tout economic plan", The Washington Post. Retrieved April 5, 2012.
  4. ^ "Va. Dems will choose U.S. Senate nominee in June primary". The Pilot Online. September 20, 2011. 
  5. ^ Heiderman, Rosalind (November 20, 2010). "UPDATED: Virginia GOP chooses primary over convention for 2012 senate race". The Washington Post. 
  6. ^ a b Catanese, David (January 24, 2011). "Allen e-mails supporters; Webb reacts".  
  7. ^ Sherfinski, David (May 8, 2011) http://washingtonexaminer.com/local/virginia/2011/05/dark-horse-candidates-expand-gop-field-va-senate-race Retrieved May 9, 2011
  8. ^ GOP State Delegate Bob Marshall to Enter Va. Senate Race : Roll Call Politics
  9. ^ King, Neil (December 27, 2010). "Tea Party Organizer Jumps Into Va. Senate Race". The Wall Street Journal. Retrieved December 27, 2010. 
  10. ^ Cain, Andrew (December 28, 2011). "Donner drops out of Virginia's U.S. Senate race".  
  11. ^ Kumar, Anita (March 29, 2012). "McCormick fails to make GOP Senate primary ballot; four others submit signatures". The Washington Post. Retrieved March 30, 2012. 
  12. ^ Brown, Carrie (October 2, 2011). "Liz Cheney won't run for office in 2012".  
  13. ^ Martella, Ashley; Meyers, Jim (December 14, 2010). "'"Cuccinelli: Defeating Obamacare Critical to 'Constitution and Liberty.  
  14. ^ Kumar, Anita (August 16, 2011). "Cuccinelli says he may challenge Warner for U.S. Senate in 2014". The Washington Post. Retrieved August 16, 2011. 
  15. ^ Goodin, Emily (December 13, 2010). "Former Rep. Davis said it's unlikely he'll run for Virginia Senate in 2012".  
  16. ^ Corey Stewart Endorses George Allen in Virginia : Roll Call Politics
  17. ^ Pershing, Ben (November 10, 2011). "Virginia Republicans announce plans for three 2012 Senate primary debates". The Washington Post. 
  18. ^ Bolling Backs Allen In U.S. Senate Race | Virginia Right!
  19. ^ Pershing, Ben (April 20, 2012). "George Allen gets endorsement from tea party-backed Sen. Ron Johnson". Washington Post. Retrieved April 24, 2012. 
  20. ^ Catalina Camia (November 11, 2011). "Va. Gov. McDonnell endorses George Allen for Senate". USA Today. Retrieved December 6, 2011. 
  21. ^ "Allen wins Rubio’s backing in bid for U.S. Senate". Washington Times. June 14, 2012. Retrieved June 14, 2012. 
  22. ^ "George Allen Getting Corey Stewart's Endorsement".  
  23. ^ https://www.voterinfo.sbe.virginia.gov/election/DATA/2012/A2E23EAB-7EA6-40E2-AF41-3CE22C787EA4/unofficial/5_s.shtml
  24. ^ Cillizza, Chris (2011-04-05) "Tim Kaine announces for Senate in Virginia", Washington Post. Retrieved April 5, 2011.
  25. ^ O'Brien, Michael (2011-04-05) "Tim Kaine launches Virginia Senate bid", The Hill. Retrieved April 5, 2011
  26. ^ "Va. Senate debate: Kaine open to minimum tax, Allen sidesteps Romney". CNN. September 20, 2012. 
  27. ^ Gruenwald, Juliana (March 2, 2011). "Boucher Appears Unlikely To Seek Senate Seat".  
  28. ^ D'Aprile, Shane (March 4, 2011). "Rep. Connolly rules out 2012 Senate run; hopes for Kaine".  
  29. ^ Catanese, David; Martin, Jonathan (February 11, 2011). "Nye has "no interest," Kaine wary of run".  
  30. ^ Pershing, Ben (February 16, 2011). "Ex-rep. Perriello might run for U.S. Senate in Va. if Kaine doesn't". The Washington Post. Retrieved February 16, 2011. 
  31. ^ Wilson, Todd Allen (September 5, 2011). "Rep. Scott says he won't run for Senate".  
  32. ^ a b Hester, Wesley P. (March 25, 2012). "Allen to face host of GOP challengers; Kaine none".  
  33. ^ Kaine Campaign Finances
  34. ^ Allen Campaign Finances
  35. ^ Chisholm Campaign Finances
  36. ^ Modglin Campaign Finances
  37. ^ [1]Center for Responsive Politics
  38. ^ Donors by industry (opensecrets.org)
  39. ^ Haberman, Maggie (October 2, 2012). "Crossroads launches $16 million buy in Senate, presidential contests". Politico.com. Retrieved October 2, 2012. 

External links

Official campaign websites
  • George Allen for U.S. Senate
  • Tim Kaine for U.S. Senate
Preceded by
2008
Mark Warner
Virginia U.S. Senate elections
2012
Tim Kaine
Succeeded by
2014
TBD
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